Tipperary Intermediate Hurling Predictions: Survival on the Line and One Quarter-Final Place Up for Grabs
There is no safety net now.
After three rounds of the FBD Insurance Tipperary Intermediate Hurling Championship, the group tables have been settled, seven teams have secured quarter-final places and four others are fighting simply to remain Intermediate for 2027.
This weekend brings three hugely significant games.
On Saturday, Clonoulty/Rossmore and Carrick Davins meet in New Inn in the first relegation semi-final.
On Sunday, Holycross/Ballycahill and Ballybacon-Grange clash in Golden with the loser also moving one game closer to dropping out of Intermediate.
And sandwiched into Sunday’s programme is the one championship game that could have a major impact at the other end of the competition.
Skeheenarinky v Newport.
South champions against a Newport side with one of the best defensive records in the entire grade.
One moves into the last eight.
The other’s Michael Maher Cup campaign is finished.
We have gone through all three rounds, the scoring and concession data, individual scoring returns, form trends and match reports to predict all three games.
Clonoulty/Rossmore v Carrick Davins
Saturday, September 5
2.00pm, New Inn
The numbers
Clonoulty/Rossmore
Played: 3
Won: 0
Scored: 49
Conceded: 108
Average scored: 16.33
Average conceded: 36.00
Scoring difference: -59
Carrick Davins
Played: 3
Won: 1
Scored: 48
Conceded: 83
Average scored: 16.00
Average conceded: 27.67
Scoring difference: -35
On the surface, this looks like a meeting of the two weakest-performing teams in the competition.
And statistically, that is essentially what it is.
They are the two lowest-scoring teams after three rounds.
Carrick Davins scored 48.
Clonoulty/Rossmore scored 49.
But the similarity ends there.
The enormous difference is what has happened defensively.
Clonoulty conceded 108 points worth of scores in three games.
Nobody else reached 100.
Their average concession rate stands at exactly 36 points per game.
Carrick Davins have hardly been watertight themselves, but at 83 conceded they are 25 points better off defensively across the three matches.
That is a substantial gap.
Clonoulty’s collapse is the major concern
Clonoulty’s three-round sequence tells the story.
Round 1: Kilsheelan/Kilcash 4-26 Clonoulty/Rossmore 0-16
Round 2: Knockavilla-Donaskeigh Kickhams 2-26 Clonoulty/Rossmore 3-16
Round 3: Portroe 3-29 Clonoulty/Rossmore 0-08
There was actually something to build on after Round 2.
Putting 3-16 on Kickhams showed Clonoulty had attacking capacity.
The problem is what happened next.
Against Portroe, they were still reasonably competitive at half-time.
Portroe led only 1-09 to 0-06.
Then Clonoulty collapsed.
They were held scoreless for the first 25 minutes of the second half and were outscored 2-20 to 0-02 after half-time.
That is not simply a defeat.
That is the kind of second half that can damage confidence heading directly into relegation.
Their official three-round results confirm a scoring return of just 49 against 108 conceded.
Then there are the Davins
For two rounds Carrick Davins looked even more toothless.
Their first two attacking returns were:
1-06
and
0-08
That is only 17 points worth of scores across two full championship games.
Then something extraordinary happened.
Davins beat Arravale Rovers 5-16 to 0-27.
They scored 31 points worth of scores in one match, almost twice what they had managed in the previous two rounds combined.
Yes, context matters.
Arravale were already qualified.
It was effectively a dead rubber for them.
Personnel were being managed.
But you cannot completely disregard a team scoring five goals against one of the championship favourites.
In Round 3 alone, Davins produced almost 65% of their total championship scoring output.
Ray Cooke, Luke Faulkner and David Holohan were among those providing major goal threats during their campaign, with Davins suddenly finding an attacking edge that had been completely absent earlier.
That changes the complexion of this game.
Where the game could be won
Clonoulty have to prevent another avalanche.
That sounds obvious, but their problem has been bigger than simply losing games.
They have conceded enormous bursts.
Kilsheelan hit 4-26.
Kickhams hit 2-26.
Portroe hit 3-29.
Every opponent has reached at least 32 points worth of scores against them.
Davins have shown only once that they possess that kind of attacking power.
But crucially, it happened in their most recent game.
Form matters in relegation.
Confidence matters even more.
Clonoulty enter this fixture after scoring eight points.
Davins enter it after scoring five goals.
That is difficult to ignore.
Prediction
This should be far closer than the teams’ Round 3 results suggest.
Clonoulty have enough evidence from their 3-16 against Kickhams to suggest they can produce a much better attacking performance than they did against Portroe.
But Davins’ sudden emergence as a goal threat, allied to Clonoulty’s defensive difficulties, tips it.
Prediction: Carrick Davins 2-16 Clonoulty/Rossmore 1-15
Carrick Davins to win by 4 points
Davins’ Round 3 performance is the biggest reason.
If it was a one-off, Clonoulty can absolutely win this.
If even half of that attacking improvement carries into New Inn, Davins should survive this first relegation hurdle.
Confidence: 6/10
Holycross/Ballycahill v Ballybacon-Grange
Sunday, September 6
1.00pm, Golden
If you are looking for the closest game of the three, this is it.
The numbers are almost bizarrely similar.
The numbers
Holycross/Ballycahill
Played: 3
Won: 0
Drawn: 1
Lost: 2
Scored: 53
Conceded: 68
Average scored: 17.67
Average conceded: 22.67
Scoring difference: -15
Ballybacon-Grange
Played: 3
Won: 0
Lost: 3
Scored: 52
Conceded: 72
Average scored: 17.33
Average conceded: 24.00
Scoring difference: -20
One point separates their total attacking production.
Four points separate their defensive totals.
Five points separate their scoring differences.
After 180-plus minutes of championship hurling, there is virtually nothing between them statistically.
Yet one thing does separate them.
Trajectory.
Holycross are getting better
Holycross’s Intermediate return began badly.
Cappawhite beat them 0-22 to 0-11 in Round 1.
Eleven points scored.
An eleven-point defeat.
For the 2025 Junior A champions, it was a harsh demonstration of the difference between the grades.
But their response was impressive.
Against Skeheenarinky they scored 4-12 and drew 4-12 to 1-21.
That represents 24 points worth of scores, more than double their Round 1 attacking output.
They then faced unbeaten Ballingarry.
Holycross lost.
But only by four.
Ballingarry 1-19 Holycross/Ballycahill 1-15.
Considering Ballingarry went three from three and finished with the second-best defensive record in the championship, there was very little shame in that.
Holycross’s sequence in terms of points scored has therefore been:
11 → 24 → 18
The opening-day problem has not disappeared from their average, but they have clearly improved.
Ballybacon have been competitive too
It would be very dangerous to write Ballybacon off.
They are permanently associated with relegation battles at this level, but that also means they possess something Holycross do not.
Experience of survival games.
They opened with a disappointing 0-14 to 0-26 loss to Newport.
But Round 2 was far more competitive.
Moyle Rovers edged them 3-16 to 2-17.
Ballybacon were then competitive for a long time against unbeaten Borrisokane in Round 3.
Shane Ryan’s goal in the 40th minute put Ballybacon into a position where an upset genuinely looked possible.
Eventually Borrisokane regained control, Philip Austin’s introduction proving important, and the group winners prevailed 1-18 to 1-12.
But this wasn’t Ballybacon being dismantled.
They made the team with the best defence in the championship work for the victory.
Paul Cummins is crucial
One individual statistic jumps off the page.
Paul Cummins: 0-26.
He has accounted for exactly half of Ballybacon’s 52-point championship scoring total.
That is enormous dependence on one player.
Cummins has scored 26.
The entire rest of the Ballybacon panel combined has produced the other 26.
There are positives and negatives in that.
The positive is obvious.
They possess an extremely reliable scorer.
The negative is equally obvious.
If Holycross can restrict Cummins, where does enough scoring come from?
Cummins has also produced 14 of those points from play, meaning he is far more than simply a placed-ball specialist.
Shane Ryan has provided an important goal threat, but Ballybacon need several players contributing if they are going to win this.
Holycross have greater spread
Holycross’s scoring has been less dependent on one man.
Eoghan Hickey has provided a goal threat.
Jamie Woods has contributed.
Luke O’Mara has found the net.
Others have chipped in.
That spread could be very important in a relegation game where frees may be difficult to come by and one player can easily be shut down for a period.
The decisive statistic
For me, it is not 53 scored versus 52.
It is the recent opposition.
Holycross have gone toe-to-toe with Skeheenarinky and Ballingarry.
They scored 4-12 against Skeheen and then stayed within four points of a Ballingarry side that won all three matches.
Ballybacon also improved after Round 1, but they still lost all three.
Sometimes confidence in a relegation game comes from simply knowing you have recently been close enough to win.
Holycross have been.
Twice.
Prediction
This could easily come down to one puck of a ball.
Ballybacon’s experience in relegation battles makes them extremely dangerous, and if Paul Cummins is afforded enough frees they can win it.
But Holycross’s recent form line is slightly better.
Their defence is marginally stronger statistically.
Their scoring is marginally better.
And there is a little more variety to their attack.
That is enough to swing the prediction.
Prediction: Holycross/Ballycahill 1-17 Ballybacon-Grange 1-15
Holycross/Ballycahill to win by 2 points
This is the least confident prediction of the weekend.
Two very evenly matched sides.
One score could decide it.
Confidence: 5.5/10
Skeheenarinky v Newport
Sunday, September 6
2.00pm, Sean Treacy Park, Tipperary Town
Now this is fascinating.
Because the basic numbers say Newport.
Quite strongly.
But individual attacking form says Skeheenarinky have a weapon capable of turning the prediction upside down.
The numbers
Skeheenarinky
Played: 3
Won: 0
Drawn: 1
Lost: 2
Scored: 67
Conceded: 77
Average scored: 22.33
Average conceded: 25.67
Scoring difference: -10
Newport
Played: 3
Won: 2
Lost: 1
Scored: 69
Conceded: 56
Average scored: 23.00
Average conceded: 18.67
Scoring difference: +13
Look at those attacking totals.
Skeheen 67.
Newport 69.
Essentially identical.
Then look at defence.
Skeheen conceded 77.
Newport conceded 56.
That is a 21-point difference across just three games.
Newport’s attack has produced only two more points than Skeheen’s.
Their defence has saved 21.
That is the central statistical argument for Newport.
Newport’s defensive record is elite
Only two teams conceded fewer points in the group stages.
Borrisokane: 52.
Ballingarry: 55.
Then Newport: 56.
That puts them ahead defensively of Kilsheelan/Kilcash, Portroe, Cappawhite, Clonakenny and Arravale.
It is a serious foundation.
Their three results show the consistency.
They held Ballybacon-Grange to 0-14.
Borrisokane scored 2-20, but Borrisokane are unbeaten and one of the strongest teams in the competition.
Then, in the knockout-style Round 3 meeting with Moyle Rovers, Newport limited them to 0-16.
That was effectively a preliminary knockout game before the real preliminary knockout game.
Newport had to win.
They won 1-20 to 0-16.
That matters.
They have already shown they can deal with this type of pressure.
Newport also have scoring balance
Colin Floyd is their leading scoring presence.
His total through three rounds stands at 1-18.
But Newport are not entirely dependent on him.
Charlie Tobin has provided 0-08, all from play.
Pa Ryan has supplied a goal threat.
Conor Floyd has chipped in regularly.
There is enough spread to prevent Skeheen simply identifying one scoring source and shutting it down.
But Skeheen have Darragh Brennan
Here is the argument against everything above.
Darragh Brennan: 1-20 overall.
More remarkably:
1-19 from play.
That is 22 points worth of scores from open play in three matches.
He has scored almost everything without the assistance of placed balls.
And his trajectory is moving in only one direction.
Round 1: 0-04 from play
Round 2: 0-08 from play
Round 3: 1-07 from play
Against Cappawhite, Brennan was outstanding.
Skeheen looked in serious difficulty when Cappawhite built a sizeable advantage.
Brennan kept coming.
He finished with 1-07 from play and was central to Skeheen dragging the deficit back down to four.
His full three-round data is exceptional, 1-20 overall, with all but one point worth of that scoring coming from play.
If he produces another 1-07 from play on Sunday, every Newport defensive statistic becomes secondary.
Tomas Vaughan gives Skeheen another weapon
Brennan isn’t alone.
Tomas Vaughan has accumulated 1-22.
Much of that total comes from placed balls, but that is precisely why he complements Brennan so well.
Brennan is producing from open play.
Vaughan can punish fouls.
That means Newport cannot simply decide to physically smother Brennan and concede frees.
Skeheen possess the scoring mechanisms to punish both approaches.
Why haven’t Skeheen won a game?
That is the obvious counter-question.
Their results:
Ballingarry 1-19 Skeheenarinky 0-16.
Skeheenarinky 1-21 Holycross/Ballycahill 4-12.
Cappawhite 2-25 Skeheenarinky 3-18.
Zero wins.
One draw.
Two defeats.
For all their attacking ability, they have repeatedly conceded too much.
Their defensive average is 25.67.
Newport’s is 18.67.
A full seven points per game.
In a knockout match, that difference is enormous.
The quality of Skeheen’s opposition matters
There is one important qualification.
Skeheen’s two defeats came against Ballingarry and Cappawhite.
Ballingarry went three from three.
Cappawhite went two from three and are already safely into the quarter-finals.
Skeheen were competitive against both.
They lost to Ballingarry by six.
They lost to Cappawhite by four.
So their winless record is slightly harsher than it first appears.
This is not a team being blown away.
They have been hanging around against quality opposition without quite converting performances into results.
So who wins?
My head says Newport.
The evidence is simply stronger.
Two championship victories against zero.
A +13 scoring difference against -10.
Only 56 conceded compared with 77.
Experience of winning a must-win game against Moyle Rovers in Round 3.
Skeheen’s route to victory is more individual.
Brennan has to produce.
Vaughan needs to punish frees.
And Skeheen need their best defensive performance of the championship.
If those three things happen, they can absolutely win.
But Newport have more ways of controlling the game.
Prediction
I expect Skeheen to make this extremely uncomfortable.
Brennan’s current form makes it very difficult to see Newport completely containing them.
But Newport’s defensive record is not a statistical accident after three rounds.
They concede seven fewer points per match than Skeheen.
In a game where the attacking averages are almost identical, that is the deciding factor.
Prediction: Newport 1-20 Skeheenarinky 1-18
Newport to win by 2 points
Expect this to be the game that goes deepest into the final ten minutes.
If Darragh Brennan gets enough possession, the prediction could be gone very quickly.
But Newport’s balance just gives them the edge.
Confidence: 6.5/10
The Premier View Weekend Predictions
| Fixture | Predicted winner | Predicted score | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clonoulty/Rossmore v Carrick Davins | Carrick Davins | Davins 2-16 Clonoulty 1-15 | Davins +4 |
| Holycross/Ballycahill v Ballybacon-Grange | Holycross/Ballycahill | Holycross 1-17 Ballybacon 1-15 | Holycross +2 |
| Skeheenarinky v Newport | Newport | Newport 1-20 Skeheen 1-18 | Newport +2 |
The Three Calls
Carrick Davins to survive
Not because their overall numbers are good.
They aren’t.
But their 5-16 in Round 3 represents the single biggest positive form change among the four relegation teams, while Clonoulty enter the game having conceded 108 points and just shipped 3-29.
Davins by four.
Holycross to edge the tightest game
There is almost nothing separating them statistically.
Holycross scored 53.
Ballybacon scored 52.
Holycross conceded 68.
Ballybacon conceded 72.
The difference is trajectory.
Holycross have become progressively more competitive and pushed unbeaten Ballingarry to four points last time out.
Holycross by two.
Newport’s defence to get them into the quarter-finals
The attacking numbers are virtually identical.
Newport 69.
Skeheen 67.
The defensive numbers are not.
Newport 56 conceded.
Skeheen 77.
Darragh Brennan is the wild card, and perhaps the most dangerous open-play forward in the championship based on the first three rounds.
But across 60 minutes, Newport have shown themselves to be the more balanced team.
Newport by two.
Three games.
Two teams fighting to avoid the relegation final.
One final place in the county quarter-finals.
And in all three, the margins look small enough that one goal could make every statistic above irrelevant.