Premier Intermediate Preliminary Quarter-Final Predictions
The calculations are finished.
The group tables no longer matter beyond explaining how these six teams arrived here.
From this weekend on, the Premier Intermediate Hurling Championship becomes brutally simple.
Win and move on.
Lose and, for most, the county championship is over.
Three preliminary quarter-finals will decide the final places in the last eight, and there is enough evidence after 24 group games to make these predictions on considerably more than reputation or instinct.
We now have three rounds of attacking data.
Three rounds of defensive data.
Goal totals.
Scores from play.
Individual scoring dependence.
Momentum.
And, perhaps most importantly, evidence of how these teams react when games begin going against them.
The three match-ups are very different.
Seán Treacys against Thurles Sarsfields has all the ingredients of a shootout.
Boherlahan-Dualla against Silvermines pits one of the more balanced teams in the championship against its leading individual scorer.
And Moneygall against Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill is the clearest clash of identities: the best defence in the competition against a West championship attack that finally came alive in Round 3.
Here is how we see them.
Seán Treacys v Thurles Sarsfields
Saturday, September 5
3.00pm
Drombane
Referee: Shane O’Neill
Of the three games, this is the one with the greatest potential to become completely chaotic.
The numbers almost demand it.
Seán Treacys have scored 84 point-equivalents in three games.
That is 28.0 per match, the second-highest attacking total in the championship.
They have also conceded 90.
Thirty per game.
Only Templederry have a defensive record as costly.
Thurles Sarsfields are much less productive in attack.
They have scored 67, an average of 22.33.
But their defence has hardly been watertight either.
They have conceded 80, or 26.67 per game.
So neither team enters this preliminary quarter-final with a defensive profile that screams control.
That immediately favours Treacys.
Their attack is simply operating at a higher level.
The key figure is Paddy Carey.
He has 1-33, giving him 36 point-equivalents after three rounds.
That puts him right among the leading scorers in Premier Intermediate.
But the most encouraging part of the Gortnahoe victory was that Treacys finally showed they could win without asking Carey to produce virtually everything.
Cillian Kennedy finished Round 3 with 1-03 and delivered the added-time goal that kept their championship alive.
Mikey Feehan scored 1-02.
Brian Carey contributed four points.
Pat Deegan added two.
James Butler scored.
Colm Kennedy scored.
That spread matters.
Treacys scored 2-24 against Gortnahoe, and although their defence nearly gave away a 12-point lead, the attacking ceiling was again obvious.
They have now produced:
2-24
1-21
2-24
There has been no poor attacking performance.
That consistency is difficult to ignore.
Sarsfields are coming from a very different place.
Their championship began with a 2-21 to 3-17 win over Carrick Swan.
Since then:
0-18 against Killenaule.
1-19 against St Mary’s.
The downward trend is clear.
And their reliance on two players is increasingly significant.
Jack Lanigan has accumulated 0-29.
Cillian Minogue has scored 1-09 from play, 12 point-equivalents without relying on frees.
Those are serious returns.
Lanigan gives Sarsfields reliability over dead balls.
Minogue gives them a live-ball threat.
The question is what comes around them.
Against St Mary’s, Sarsfields looked beaten when they fell eight behind late on.
Then they produced their best passage of the game.
Rory Purcell made an impact from the bench.
Pa Bourke buried a free.
Lanigan continued scoring.
They hit 1-03 without reply and reduced the gap to two.
That comeback is the reason we would not write them off here.
There is still character in this team.
And there is enough experience to understand exactly how to navigate knockout hurling.
But the matchup worries us.
Treacys want a game where both teams are forced beyond 20.
Sarsfields probably need to prevent that.
If this becomes a possession game and Sars can hold Treacys to 19 or 20 point-equivalents, Lanigan’s frees give them a real chance.
If it becomes a race to 25 or 26?
Treacys have considerably more evidence of getting there.
The other issue is goals.
Treacys have scored five goals in the group stage.
Sarsfields have scored three.
Treacys have also generated goal threats from several different players.
That ability to find a major when a game becomes stretched could be decisive.
We expect Sarsfields to make this far more disciplined than some of Treacys’ group matches.
We also expect it to remain within one score entering the closing stages.
But eventually Sarsfields are going to have to contain Carey, Kennedy, Feehan and the Treacys runners simultaneously.
We are not convinced they can.
The prediction
Seán Treacys 2-22 Thurles Sarsfields 1-21
That is 28 point-equivalents to 24.
Verdict
Seán Treacys by four points.
Their defence will give Sarsfields opportunities.
Their attack should give them more.
Boherlahan-Dualla v Silvermines
Sunday, September 6
1.00pm
Templemore
Referee: Cian Ryan
This is probably the most dangerous prediction of the three.
The overall statistics strongly favour Boherlahan-Dualla.
But Jason Forde changes the equation.
Boherlahan have scored 73 point-equivalents, an average of 24.33.
They have conceded 62.
That defensive average of 20.67 per game is the third-best in the championship behind Moneygall and Killenaule.
Their overall differential is +11.
Silvermines?
Sixty-eight scored.
Seventy-seven conceded.
A differential of -9.
No group wins.
On the surface, Boherlahan should win.
Then look at the Silvermines Round 3 performance.
They scored 2-18 against Moyne-Templetuohy.
They were five points ahead with four minutes remaining.
They came within seconds of handing the Group 1 winners their first defeat.
That was a very different Silvermines from the team that lost the opening two rounds.
And Forde remains the enormous variable.
His scoring total is:
3-31.
Forty point-equivalents.
Silvermines have scored 68.
So Forde has supplied almost 59 per cent of their entire group-stage attack.
Usually, that kind of dependence would be a reason to strongly oppose a team.
There is another way of looking at it.
Silvermines have a player who can keep them in a knockout game almost by himself.
Forde has scored three goals.
He has also scored 3-05 from play, showing that his value is much broader than free-taking.
Boherlahan’s first rule therefore has to be discipline.
Do not give him cheap frees.
Do not allow Silvermines to turn this into a game where every infringement between 65 metres and the goal becomes a scoreboard event.
Make the other Silvermines forwards win it.
That is where Boherlahan’s collective advantage appears.
Their attack is far less dependent on one player.
Tossy Ryan has 0-21.
Euan Ryan has 0-09 from play.
James Kirby has 0-07.
And Round 3 finally gave Boherlahan something that had been missing.
Goals.
They scored three against Ballina.
Mark Downey came from the bench and goaled.
Séamus Leahy came from the bench and goaled.
Paddy Gahan added another.
That completely changes the profile of this team.
Through two rounds, Boherlahan could score points with anybody but were struggling to turn possession into majors.
Against Golden, they scored 0-25 and still lost.
That told the story.
Now there is evidence that they can hurt a team inside the defensive line.
Their bench also looks important.
Downey and Leahy changed the Ballina game.
In knockout hurling, that matters enormously.
Silvermines undoubtedly have a route.
Keep it tight.
Let Forde accumulate.
Find one goal.
Drag Boherlahan into the final five minutes.
And then make every free feel enormous.
But Boherlahan have shown the more complete three-game profile.
They defend better.
They have more scoring sources.
Their bench has begun contributing heavily.
And they have won two county games while Silvermines have yet to win one.
The margin should be narrow.
Silvermines are too dangerous for anything else.
But the balance of the data still points towards Boherlahan.
The prediction
Boherlahan-Dualla 2-20 Silvermines 1-20
That is 26 point-equivalents to 23.
Verdict
Boherlahan-Dualla by three points.
Forde keeps Silvermines alive deep into the game.
Boherlahan’s scoring spread gets them over the line.
Moneygall v Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill
Sunday, September 6
1.30pm
Littleton
Referee: Kevin Jordan
If the first game is about attacking chaos and the second about balance versus an elite scorer, this one is about defence.
Moneygall’s numbers after three games are remarkable.
They have conceded:
49 point-equivalents.
That is 16.33 per match.
The best defensive average in Premier Intermediate.
They have conceded one goal in 180 minutes.
Templederry failed to score one.
Burgess failed to score one.
Lorrha were the only team who managed it.
And Round 3 was the defining performance.
Burgess entered having scored 4-22 against Templederry.
David Nealon had three championship goals.
Burgess needed a win or draw.
Moneygall held them to:
0-10.
Then scored 0-26 themselves.
Sixteen-point win.
Winner-takes-all game.
That moves beyond promising.
That is serious championship evidence.
It is not only the full-back line.
Kirwan, Tuohy and Teehan have been outstanding.
But the half-back structure has protected them superbly.
Andy Hoolan and Eoin Whyte are winning possession before attacks reach the danger zone.
Paddy McCormack’s puckouts are also becoming an attacking weapon.
And now the forward division looks less dependent on Eoghan Doughan.
Doughan remains their leading scorer with 2-22.
But Seán Kenneally’s development has been significant.
He has 0-13 from play.
Seven of those came against Burgess.
Adam Hogan has contributed.
Tadhg Whyte has contributed.
Joe Fogarty is back.
Moneygall had ten scorers against Burgess.
That is a completely different attacking profile to a team being carried by one scorer.
Éire Óg arrive with far weaker group numbers.
They scored 63.
Conceded 76.
Finished without a county win.
Their attacking average is 21.0.
Their differential is -13.
They scored only one goal in three games.
On those numbers alone, Moneygall are the clear pick.
But Éire Óg’s Round 3 performance is what prevents us from making this a comfortable prediction.
They scored 1-25 against Golden-Kilfeacle.
That is 28 point-equivalents against a team that finished 3-0.
For the first time in the county campaign, the West champions looked like the attack that had scored 4-28 in the West final.
Aidan Griffin has 1-24.
Darragh Kelly began to get far more involved.
Paudie Bradshaw scored four against Golden.
Kevin Fox three.
Dinny Crosse two.
Donal O’Dwyer two.
Suddenly Griffin was not carrying the entire attack.
That version of Éire Óg can cause Moneygall problems.
But there is one enormous question.
Where does the goal come from?
Moneygall have conceded one.
Éire Óg have scored one.
That is a terrible statistical matchup for the West champions.
If Éire Óg are forced to win this almost exclusively through points, they probably need somewhere around 21 or 22 of them.
Moneygall have not allowed anybody close to that type of total apart from Lorrha.
And unlike Golden, Moneygall are unlikely to want a shootout.
They will slow Éire Óg’s supply.
Make Darragh Kelly fight for possession.
Avoid cheap fouls around Griffin’s range.
And force the secondary forwards to beat them.
Moneygall also arrive with the most positive Round 3 momentum possible.
Éire Óg scored well and lost by six.
Moneygall won by 16.
We think Éire Óg’s Round 3 form keeps this competitive.
But the best defence in the championship is too difficult to oppose.
The prediction
Moneygall 1-20 Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill 0-18
That is 23 point-equivalents to 18.
Verdict
Moneygall by five points.
The key statistic is simple.
One Moneygall goal conceded in three matches.
One Éire Óg goal scored.
Unless Éire Óg completely overturn that pattern, Moneygall should advance.
The Premier View Preliminary Quarter-Final Calls
Strongest pick: Moneygall
The best defensive record in the championship, a +22 overall scoring differential and a 16-point Round 3 victory make them our strongest selection of the weekend.
Closest game: Boherlahan-Dualla v Silvermines
Boherlahan have the better overall numbers.
Silvermines have Jason Forde.
That alone is enough to make this dangerous.
Most likely shootout: Seán Treacys v Thurles Sarsfields
Treacys average 28 scored and 30 conceded.
There is very little evidence that they are suddenly going to play a 0-17 to 0-16 game.
If Sarsfields cannot drag the scoring level down, Treacys should advance.
By Sunday afternoon, three more teams will be gone.
And the Premier Intermediate Championship will finally be down to its last eight.