Tipperary Premier Intermediate Hurling Round 3 Predictions: Eight Games, Huge Stakes and a Championship Ready to Break Open
Two rounds have taken the Premier Intermediate Hurling Championship from uncertainty to the edge of knockout territory.
The opening weekend gave us clues.
Round 3 gives us consequences.
Three teams have already done the hard work and secured top spot in their groups. Others arrive this weekend effectively playing knockout hurling a round early. Some are chasing quarter-final places. Some are fighting simply to remain alive. A few already know the group-stage verdict and are now playing for momentum before the championship moves into its next phase.
And the numbers are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Golden-Kilfeacle have been the most productive attacking team through the opening two rounds, scoring 60 point-equivalents at an average of 30.0 per game.
Moyne-Templetuohy are right behind them on 29.0 per game, their attack transformed by the return of Gearóid O’Connor and the continued emergence of Finn Jones, Conor Bowe and Cormac Deegan.
Carrick Swan sit third for attacking output at 28.0 per game.
They have also lost both matches.
That one statistic probably explains this championship better than anything else.
Scoring heavily is not enough.
Killenaule have demonstrated the opposite approach. Their attack is averaging a much more modest 23.0, but they have conceded only 17.0 point-equivalents per game, comfortably the best defensive figure in the championship.
Moneygall and Gortnahoe-Glengoole are next at 19.5 conceded per game.
At the other end of the spectrum, Seán Treacys have conceded 63 point-equivalents, an average of 31.5 per game.
Templederry Kenyons are conceding 30.0.
Carrick Swan 29.5.
We now have enough evidence to begin distinguishing an isolated result from a genuine trend.
Individual form is also becoming increasingly important.
Jack Leamy leads the scoring from play with 3-06.
Keane Hayes has 2-07.
David Nealon, Ben Currivan, Cillian Minogue and Finn Jones have all produced 11 point-equivalents from play.
Paddy Carey and Currivan sit at the top of the overall scoring charts, while Jason Forde continues to carry an extraordinary percentage of the Silvermines scoring load.
That is the landscape entering the final group weekend.
Eight games.
Eight different stories.
Here is how The Premier View sees Round 3 unfolding.
St Mary’s v Thurles Sarsfields
Sunday, August 23
12.00pm
Golden
There is no need to manufacture jeopardy around this one.
It already exists.
St Mary’s and Thurles Sarsfields enter Round 3 knowing that the direct route into the next stage is there to be taken.
They also arrive from completely different Round 2 experiences.
St Mary’s bounced back.
Sarsfields were bounced.
The South champions began the county championship with a disappointing 1-13 to 0-19 defeat against Killenaule.
They then produced one of the biggest attacking turnarounds of the competition.
Round 1:
1-13.
Round 2:
2-26.
That is 16 point-equivalents followed by 32.
Double.
Yes, Carrick Swan’s defensive problems must be considered. Carrick have conceded heavily in both games.
But 2-26 remains an enormous score.
Peter McGarry was central to the improvement and now sits on 0-14 across the championship.
Harry Lawlor has eight point-equivalents.
Conor Deeley has contributed.
Cathal Deeley has found the net.
Séamus Kennedy gives St Mary’s that priceless ability to turn defence into attack with one carry.
What St Mary’s showed against Carrick was variety.
That was missing against Killenaule.
The entire attack looked cramped in Round 1.
In Round 2, they attacked from several different positions.
That matters against Sarsfields because the Mid champions will almost certainly attempt to re-establish the defensive control that carried them through their divisional championship.
Sarsfields were our No. 1-ranked Premier Intermediate team after Round 1.
There was good reason for it.
They had already beaten Gortnahoe-Glengoole in the Mid semi-final.
They defeated Moyne-Templetuohy in the Mid final.
Then they beat Carrick Swan 2-21 to 3-17.
That looked like a serious run of form.
Then came Killenaule.
Killenaule 2-21 Thurles Sarsfields 0-18.
A nine-point defeat.
No goals.
Twenty-seven point-equivalents conceded.
Suddenly the profile changed.
Jack Lanigan remains hugely important and has 0-20 across two county rounds.
Cillian Minogue has been excellent from play, producing 1-08 without relying on frees.
Those two give Sarsfields a dependable scoring base.
The question is whether enough comes around them.
Against Killenaule, it did not.
That is where this game becomes fascinating.
St Mary’s are coming from a shootout.
Sarsfields are coming from a game where they were unable to create enough attacking damage.
St Mary’s will want to stretch this.
Sarsfields will want to compress it.
The early exchanges could decide the type of game we see.
If St Mary’s start quickly and force Sarsfields beyond 20 or 21 point-equivalents, the South champions have the form to live in that scoring range.
If Sars can turn it into an 18 or 19-point game, their chances improve significantly.
Séamus Kennedy’s role could be crucial.
If he is allowed to break the first line and carry possession through midfield, St Mary’s can create the same type of running opportunities Killenaule used so effectively.
Sarsfields need to stop the attack before it reaches that point.
They also need to rediscover their own confidence.
One poor performance should not erase an entire summer.
But it cannot be ignored either.
St Mary’s currently have the momentum.
That just shades it.
Predicted score
St Mary’s 2-19 Thurles Sarsfields 1-20
Verdict
St Mary’s by two points.
Carrick Swan v Killenaule
Sunday, August 23
12.00pm
Fethard
On paper, this looks like a game where the group positions have removed the drama.
In reality, it might produce plenty.
Killenaule already have top spot secured.
Carrick Swan already know they are heading towards a relegation battle.
But Carrick against Killenaule rarely requires manufactured motivation.
And for the Swan, there is something important at stake beyond group points.
Confidence.
They badly need some.
Carrick have produced perhaps the strangest two-game statistical profile in the championship.
They scored 3-17 against Thurles Sarsfields.
Then 3-21 against St Mary’s.
Six goals.
Thirty-eight points.
An average attacking return of 28.0 point-equivalents.
Third best in the grade.
Zero championship points.
That is extraordinary.
The issue is brutally obvious.
They conceded 2-21 in Round 1.
Then 2-26 in Round 2.
Their attack is performing at contender level.
Their defence is currently performing at relegation level.
Calum Lanigan remains the headline attacker with 2-19, but there has actually been encouraging progress in terms of support.
Aaron Dunne is contributing.
Stefan Tobin has scored.
Eric O’Halloran and Taylor Fleming have both found the net.
Aaron O’Halloran and Callum Walsh have added scores.
The Carrick attack is no longer simply waiting for Lanigan.
That makes what is happening defensively even more frustrating.
They have solved one of their Round 1 questions and created another.
Killenaule could hardly present a more contrasting profile.
Their leading scorer has only nine point-equivalents.
Nine.
And they are the strongest team in our current power rankings.
That tells you everything about their balance.
Tom Stakelum has 2-03.
Fionn Fitzgerald has 0-06.
Darragh Doyle 0-06.
Tony Ryan 0-06.
Joe O’Dwyer 0-05.
Luke Ryan 0-04.
Podge O’Dwyer 0-03.
There is no obvious player to remove.
That is difficult enough.
Then add the defence.
Killenaule have conceded just 34 point-equivalents in two games.
Seventeen per match.
Only one goal.
St Mary’s were held to 1-13.
Sarsfields to 0-18.
The central question here is fascinating:
What happens when one of the championship’s most explosive attacks meets its best defence?
Carrick’s incentive may actually work in their favour.
They can play with freedom.
There is no group table to protect.
No qualification equation.
They need a performance more than they need to manage a result.
That could allow their forwards to express themselves.
The danger is that the same freedom creates the type of open game Killenaule can exploit.
Killenaule do not need to chase scores.
They can wait for Carrick to make mistakes.
They can force the Swan to play through multiple defensive lines.
And if the game becomes stretched in the final quarter, Killenaule’s greater balance should matter.
Carrick can absolutely win this.
Their attack is good enough.
But after 59 point-equivalents conceded in two games, there is not enough evidence yet to trust the other end.
Predicted score
Killenaule 1-21 Carrick Swan 2-16
Verdict
Killenaule by two points.
Gortnahoe-Glengoole v Seán Treacys
Sunday, August 23
1.00pm
Leahy Park, Cashel
Gortnahoe-Glengoole may have produced one of the most important Round 2 performances without attracting anything like the attention of Moyne or Golden.
They beat the North champions.
And they did it convincingly.
Gortnahoe-Glengoole 2-17 Silvermines 1-13.
Keane Hayes was central.
His overall championship return now includes 2-07 from play, second only to Jack Leamy.
That is elite open-play production.
Damien Corbett provides the perfect complement.
Hayes attacks space.
Defenders engage.
Fouls follow.
Corbett punishes them.
Ronan Teehan provides another route and has already found the net.
That trio gives Gortnahoe a clear attacking identity.
More importantly, the defence is working.
They are conceding just 19.5 point-equivalents per match.
Joint second best in the championship.
Their opening 2-17 draw with Moyne-Templetuohy now looks substantially better than it did at the time.
Moyne have since scored 3-26.
That makes the Round 1 draw look less like an ordinary opening fixture and more like a contest between two teams who were beginning to find form.
Seán Treacys are almost the inverse.
They have scored heavily.
They have also conceded extraordinarily heavily.
Their attacking average is 27.0.
Their defensive average is 31.5.
That is simply too large a gap.
Paddy Carey has been outstanding.
He is among the leading scorers in the championship and continues to deliver from placed balls.
But Treacys cannot continually ask him to solve every scoring problem.
Their Round 1 attack had more dimensions.
Patrick Dawson.
James Butler.
Pat Deegan.
Cillian Kennedy.
Different players were hurting Silvermines.
Against Moyne, the balance disappeared.
Carey continued scoring.
The rest of the attack did not contribute enough.
At the other end, Moyne found holes everywhere.
Gearóid O’Connor ran.
Finn Jones found goals.
Conor Bowe scored.
Cormac Deegan scored.
Treacys could not contain all of them.
That brings us to the tactical question.
Do Treacys try to slow this game?
Or do they embrace the chaos?
Their best chance may actually be to make it wild.
A controlled 20-point match strongly favours Gortnahoe.
A 28-point shootout brings Carey, Dawson and Butler into a game where Treacys may be able to outscore their defensive issues.
Gortnahoe should resist that temptation.
They do not need to match Treacys score for score.
They need to continue doing what has worked.
Control the puckouts.
Get Hayes isolated in favourable areas.
Force Treacys to foul.
Allow Corbett to accumulate.
And make Treacys prove that they can build scores from somebody other than Carey.
On two-round evidence, that is the more reliable formula.
Predicted score
Gortnahoe-Glengoole 2-19 Seán Treacys 1-19
Verdict
Gortnahoe-Glengoole by three points.
Moyne-Templetuohy v Silvermines
Sunday, August 23
1.00pm
Drombane
There may not be a team in the grade carrying more attacking momentum into Round 3 than Moyne-Templetuohy.
Their first two county scores:
2-17.
3-26.
Fifty-eight point-equivalents.
An average of 29.0 per game.
Only Golden-Kilfeacle have produced more.
The 3-26 against Seán Treacys was not simply a big score.
It was a warning.
Moyne’s attacking structure has changed.
The return of Gearóid O’Connor has added a completely different dimension.
He can receive deeper.
Carry.
Break a tackle.
Force a defender to commit.
Then release somebody else.
That has created more space for players who were already performing.
Conor Bowe has 0-10 from play.
Finn Jones has 3-02 from play.
Cormac Deegan is providing another scoring route.
O’Connor himself has immediately become a major threat.
Then come the supporting players.
Kieran Larkin.
Tristan Kelly.
Ben Moore.
Moyne no longer look like a team with one obvious attacking solution.
That is bad news for Silvermines.
The North champions have conceded 53 point-equivalents.
Their defence is allowing 26.5 per game.
And they now face an attack averaging 29.
Silvermines’ own scoring profile contains the biggest individual dependency in the championship.
Jason Forde has scored 2-20.
Silvermines have scored 44 point-equivalents as a team.
Forde has supplied 26 of them.
That is approximately 59 per cent.
He is performing at an exceptional level.
But Gortnahoe demonstrated the blueprint.
Forde can score heavily and Silvermines can still lose.
The opposition do not necessarily have to stop Forde.
They have to stop everybody else.
If Moyne reduce the supporting contribution around him, there is no obvious route for Silvermines to reach the kind of total probably required here.
There is a psychological element too.
Silvermines already know their group position.
Their North championship gives them a knockout route, but they are also heading towards the relegation series.
They badly need a positive performance before the season becomes even more complicated.
Moyne, meanwhile, can keep building.
This is not the same team that started the summer.
The personnel have changed.
The attack has evolved.
The confidence has grown.
Silvermines’ path to the upset is straightforward.
Keep the score low.
Do not allow O’Connor to run centrally.
Protect the space in front of Finn Jones.
Force Moyne into lower-percentage shots.
And ensure Forde gets enough dead-ball opportunities to keep the contest close.
Possible?
Absolutely.
Likely?
Not on the current numbers.
Predicted score
Moyne-Templetuohy 3-21 Silvermines 1-20
Verdict
Moyne-Templetuohy by seven points.
Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill v Golden-Kilfeacle
Sunday, August 23
1.30pm
Holycross
This is the game where the statistics and the circumstances are pulling in opposite directions.
The statistics scream Golden.
The circumstances make it much more interesting.
Golden-Kilfeacle have the best attack in the championship.
60 point-equivalents.
30.0 per game.
Five goals.
A +15 scoring differential.
Ben Currivan has been outstanding.
Jack Leamy leads the entire grade for scoring from play with 3-06.
The promoted Intermediate champions have not spent two rounds trying to survive the higher grade.
They have spent two rounds looking like they could win it.
Round 1 was the demolition.
3-23 against Ballina.
Round 2 was arguably more impressive.
Boherlahan-Dualla produced 0-25.
Golden still won.
And they had to adjust after losing Leamy through injury during the first half.
That matters.
The Round 1 version of Golden relied heavily on the devastating combination of Leamy and Currivan.
Round 2 showed that the team could survive when one of them was removed.
Currivan took more of the responsibility.
Others contributed.
Golden still produced 2-22.
That is what separates a dangerous team from a serious championship team.
Éire Óg’s county form could hardly be more different.
0-16.
0-19.
Thirty-five points.
Zero goals.
Only Templederry have produced a lower attacking average.
Yet anyone who watched the West championship knows there is another version of this attack.
Éire Óg scored 4-28 against Golden in the West final.
That is 40 point-equivalents.
More than they have scored across their two county games combined.
And this is their third meeting of the summer.
Golden won the first.
Éire Óg won the second.
So both teams know the match-up intimately.
That is important.
Éire Óg have already shown that they can hurt Golden in a way Ballina and Boherlahan could not.
Darragh Kelly’s involvement matters.
Tom Fox matters.
Dinny Crosse is beginning to contribute more.
Aidan Griffin remains reliable on the placed balls.
The key question is whether the missing goal threat returns.
Zero goals in two county games is simply not enough.
Against Golden, it certainly will not be enough.
The other variable is incentive.
Golden have already achieved what they needed from the group.
Éire Óg have much more to gain from a statement performance.
If Leamy is anything less than fully right, Golden also have every reason to be cautious.
A quarter-final is already waiting.
That does not mean they will lack intensity.
There is still the West final defeat to answer.
But when two teams know each other this well, need can matter.
This is the one prediction where I am prepared to go against the underlying numbers.
Predicted score
Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill 1-20 Golden-Kilfeacle 0-21
Verdict
Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill by two points.
Ballina v Boherlahan-Dualla
Sunday, August 23
1.30pm
Borrisoleigh
Ballina’s Round 2 performance deserves respect.
It also deserves perspective.
They were vastly improved from the team Golden took apart.
The move of Steven O’Brien to centre-back provided significantly more stability.
Cillian Ryan worked diligently around Darragh Kelly.
Charlie King supplied open-play scores.
Luke McKeogh took on more responsibility.
And when Éire Óg moved four points clear late, Ballina refused to disappear.
They fought back.
Darragh Kelly seemed to win the game for Éire Óg.
Ballina created one more attack.
McKeogh converted the free.
0-19 each.
That was a proper championship response.
The problem is that Ballina’s overall attacking numbers remain weak.
They average 19.5 point-equivalents per game.
Only Éire Óg and Templederry are lower.
Matthew Power remains central to their scoreboard, but much of his return has come from dead balls.
Charlie King’s improvement from play is therefore hugely important.
So is Eoghan Power’s contribution.
If Ballina are going to upset Boherlahan, they need more of their total to come without relying on frees.
Boherlahan’s Round 2 defeat to Golden is deceptive.
They scored 0-25.
Twenty-five scoring shots that ended over the bar.
Golden won 2-22.
The number of scores was almost identical.
The majors were not.
That is the Boherlahan issue.
They have only one goal in two county games.
Tossy Ryan has been reliable.
Euan Ryan has 0-09 from play.
James Kirby has 0-07 from play.
Those are excellent secondary scoring numbers.
Boherlahan have enough players capable of producing points.
What they need is somebody to break the line and convert a major opportunity.
This feels like a game where that may finally happen.
Ballina’s defensive structure is improving, but Golden showed the damage that can be created once that structure is broken.
Boherlahan do not have Golden’s current attacking ceiling.
They do, however, possess enough movement and scoring variety to make Ballina defend for long periods.
Ballina’s best chance is to keep the game slow.
Keep the margin to one or two.
Make Matthew Power’s frees matter.
Make the final ten minutes uncomfortable.
Boherlahan need to do the opposite.
They need to build a lead.
Create a goal.
Force Ballina to chase.
On the full two-round body of evidence, Boherlahan remain the stronger team.
Predicted score
Boherlahan-Dualla 1-20 Ballina 0-19
Verdict
Boherlahan-Dualla by four points.
Burgess v Moneygall
Sunday, August 23
6.30pm
Toomevara
This is the one I cannot separate.
And that is not avoiding a decision.
The numbers genuinely point towards an extraordinarily tight game.
Burgess have scored 55 point-equivalents.
Moneygall 45.
That suggests Burgess.
But defensively?
Burgess have conceded 45.
Moneygall only 39.
That pulls it back.
Burgess are averaging 27.5 in attack.
Moneygall are conceding 19.5.
That is a huge clash of strengths.
Then look at the goals.
Burgess have scored six.
Moneygall have conceded one.
That might be the most fascinating statistic in any Round 3 fixture.
Something has to break.
Burgess’s 4-22 demolition of Templederry was exceptional.
And David Nealon has become one of the most dangerous forwards in the championship.
He sits on 3-12 overall with 3-02 from play.
Stephen Murray gives Burgess the placed-ball base.
Daire Hogan has found the net.
Paul Cahalan has found the net.
Tony Dunne has found the net.
Burgess now have goal threats arriving from several areas.
That is precisely what Moneygall’s defence has been preventing.
They have conceded only one major in two games.
Their defensive structure has been one of the quiet strengths of the championship.
Against Lorrha, Moneygall were not outclassed.
They were level deep into the match.
The decisive difference was finishing.
Moneygall ended with 14 wides.
Four came during the closing phase.
Lorrha then finished with 1-02 unanswered.
In a game this tight, that lack of efficiency cannot happen again.
Eoghan Doughan remains the main scoring reference point.
Tadhg Whyte, Seán Kenneally and Adam Hogan need to provide the supporting return.
Joe Fogarty’s fitness could also have a major bearing.
He gives Moneygall a different type of attacking presence.
If he is missing or limited, the burden becomes heavier for Doughan and those around him.
The qualification equation adds another layer.
A draw suits Burgess.
Moneygall need more.
That may not matter for the first 50 minutes.
It could matter enormously for the final ten.
If the game is level with five minutes remaining, Moneygall must force the issue.
Burgess do not.
That could create the exact opening from which Nealon or one of the Burgess runners can strike.
Equally, Moneygall’s need to win may produce the aggression required to finally turn possession into goals.
Everything about this looks like a one-score game.
So tight, in fact, that I think they finish exactly where they started.
Level.
Predicted score
Burgess 1-20 Moneygall 2-17
Verdict
Draw.
On that prediction, Burgess would emerge with the result they need.
Lorrha-Dorrha v Templederry Kenyons
Sunday, August 23
6.30pm
Nenagh
The table may remove much of the jeopardy.
The performances still matter.
Lorrha-Dorrha have already done what every team wanted to do at the beginning of the group stage.
They are through.
They have won the group.
They can now prepare for a county quarter-final.
Templederry are heading in the opposite direction.
Their attention is increasingly turning towards survival.
That does not make this meaningless.
For Lorrha, it is about maintaining the habits that have made them one of the most impressive teams in the competition.
For Templederry, it is about finding something positive before the relegation series.
Lorrha have not dominated every minute of their first two games.
That is actually part of their appeal.
They have solved problems.
Burgess put them under serious pressure after half-time in Round 1.
Lorrha adjusted.
Eoin McIntyre moved.
The midfield balance changed.
They recovered.
Against Moneygall, there was no obvious tactical crisis.
Instead, they needed patience.
The teams were level repeatedly.
The game was still there entering the closing stages.
Lorrha finished.
Colm Fogarty.
Conor Kennedy.
Then Kennedy with the goal.
That is championship maturity.
Their scoring spread supports it.
Colm Fogarty leads the way.
David Sullivan contributes.
Conor Kennedy contributes.
Eoin McIntyre contributes.
Donnacha O’Meara contributes.
Christopher Fogarty contributes.
Opponents cannot simply remove one player and expect the whole thing to stop.
Templederry’s overall profile is much more difficult.
They have scored only 34 point-equivalents.
They have conceded 60.
Average attack:
17.0.
Average concession:
30.0.
Differential:
-26.
One goal scored.
That is a huge gap in performance level.
There have been moments where Templederry looked competitive.
They led Burgess after 20 minutes.
They stayed close enough to Moneygall for long stretches.
Then games have escaped.
That is the issue.
Once the opposition gains momentum, Templederry have struggled to slow it.
Against a Lorrha side that has already shown an ability to finish strongly, that is particularly dangerous.
The fact that Lorrha have nothing material to gain from the table is probably Templederry’s best hope.
Lorrha may manage bodies.
They may not need maximum intensity.
Templederry, meanwhile, desperately need a performance.
That should prevent this becoming a rout.
But the structural gap remains too large to ignore.
Predicted score
Lorrha-Dorrha 2-20 Templederry Kenyons 1-17
Verdict
Lorrha-Dorrha by six points.
The Premier View Round 3 Predictions
Only after working through all eight games does the overall picture become useful.
| Fixture | Predicted result | Predicted score |
|---|---|---|
| St Mary’s v Thurles Sarsfields | St Mary’s | 2-19 to 1-20 |
| Carrick Swan v Killenaule | Killenaule | 1-21 to 2-16 |
| Gortnahoe-Glengoole v Seán Treacys | Gortnahoe-Glengoole | 2-19 to 1-19 |
| Moyne-Templetuohy v Silvermines | Moyne-Templetuohy | 3-21 to 1-20 |
| Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill v Golden-Kilfeacle | Éire Óg Annacarty-Donohill | 1-20 to 0-21 |
| Ballina v Boherlahan-Dualla | Boherlahan-Dualla | 1-20 to 0-19 |
| Burgess v Moneygall | DRAW | 1-20 to 2-17 |
| Lorrha-Dorrha v Templederry Kenyons | Lorrha-Dorrha | 2-20 to 1-17 |
Final Word
The most interesting thing about Round 3 is that the eight games are not asking the same question.
Golden, Killenaule and Lorrha have already answered the qualification question.
Their job is now to preserve momentum and manage the transition towards quarter-final hurling.
Others have no such luxury.
St Mary’s and Sarsfields are effectively playing a knockout game.
Burgess and Moneygall certainly are.
Gortnahoe and Seán Treacys have an opportunity to define how their championship is viewed.
Ballina need to prove Round 2 was a genuine recovery rather than a one-game reaction.
Silvermines need to rediscover form before a very strange combination of knockout and relegation hurling awaits them.
Carrick desperately need to stop a season that has gone from two successive county finals to a relegation battle from gathering even more negative momentum.
Templederry need evidence that the slide can be stopped.
And underneath all of it sits the central question of this championship.
Which style survives?
Golden’s firepower?
Moyne’s increasingly deep attack?
Lorrha’s tactical intelligence?
Gortnahoe’s defensive structure?
Or the team that has so far given away less than everyone else while barely relying on any individual scorer?
By Sunday night, there will be no more group-stage theories.
The preliminary routes will be clearer.
The quarter-finals will be taking shape.
And the Seamus O Riain Cup will finally begin to look like a championship that somebody can actually reach out and win.