Tipperary Senior Hurling Round 3 Predictions: Eight Games That Will Shape the Championship
Two rounds have given us the evidence.
Round 3 gives us the consequences.
The final weekend of the group stage in the FBD Insurance Tipperary Senior Hurling Championship arrives with almost every corner of the competition still carrying something significant.
Two group winners have already been decided. One team already knows its championship route leads to a relegation semi-final. Everywhere else, qualification, preliminary quarter-final routes, scoring difference and championship survival remain tangled together.
And after two rounds, we finally have enough data to move beyond instinct.
We know which attacks are producing.
We know which defences are leaking.
We know which teams are relying heavily on placed balls.
We know where the goals are coming from.
We know which sides are capable of surviving tight finishes and which have allowed winning positions to disappear.
Cashel King Cormacs lead the championship scoring charts with 64 point-equivalents. Kiladangan are next on 60, JK Brackens have 58, while Nenagh Éire Óg and Borris-Ileigh are on 57.
At the other end, Moycarkey-Borris have conceded only 39, the best defensive record in the championship. Thurles Sarsfields and JK Brackens have conceded 44.
Individually, Eddie Ryan leads the scoring race with 1-26, while Billy Seymour has produced a championship-leading 1-10 from play. Sean Hayes and Jack Ryan have 2-05 from play, while David Costigan’s three goals have made him one of the breakout performers of the opening two rounds.
Now those numbers meet pressure.
Eight games.
Eight predictions.
Eight winning margins.
Here is how we see Round 3 unfolding.
Drom & Inch v Kiladangan
Saturday, 6.00pm
Venue: Dolla
There is no need to manufacture jeopardy around this one.
It is already there.
Drom & Inch need to win.
Kiladangan know a victory or a draw secures second place in Group 3.
That makes this as close to knockout hurling as the group stage can produce.
The numbers favour Kiladangan.
They have scored 60 point-equivalents through two games, second only to Cashel, while Drom have scored 54.
The gap defensively is small enough, Kiladangan have conceded 53 and Drom 57, but the attacking detail is where the North side become especially dangerous.
Billy Seymour has been outstanding.
His 1-18 overall is impressive enough. His 1-10 from play is more important.
Sean Hayes has 2-05 from play.
Paul Flynn returned against Cashel and immediately produced 1-05.
That gives Kiladangan several ways to hurt an opponent without needing the referee’s whistle to manufacture scores.
Drom’s attacking return is healthy too.
Séamus Callanan has 0-18, Cormac Fitzpatrick has contributed eight points from play, John Campion has seven and Tony Cahill’s late goal rescued their season against Roscrea.
That Roscrea game is worth remembering.
Drom were three points down with four minutes remaining and looked to be heading towards a second defeat.
They found a way.
Cahill goaled. Paudie Kinnane scored. Cormac Fitzpatrick eventually won it.
There is resilience here.
But Kiladangan’s Round 2 defeat may actually make them more dangerous.
They led Cashel by seven points with five minutes remaining and somehow lost 3-23 to 3-22.
A side with their experience will have spent the intervening period examining exactly how that happened.
They are unlikely to make the same mistake twice.
Drom will need to turn this into a physical, tense, low-margin contest and force Kiladangan to think about the consequences.
The problem is that Drom have to chase the victory at some stage.
That should create space.
And space is exactly what Seymour, Hayes and Flynn want.
Predicted score: Kiladangan 2-23 Drom & Inch 1-22
Prediction: Kiladangan by 4
Cashel King Cormacs v Roscrea
Saturday, 6.00pm
Venue: Templemore
On paper, this is the easiest game to understand.
Cashel have secured top spot.
Roscrea are guaranteed to finish bottom of Group 3 and will enter the relegation semi-final regardless of the result.
In reality, that makes it a slightly awkward game to predict.
What does Cashel do with a match it does not need to win?
How many players are rested?
How much does Roscrea value momentum before relegation?
Cashel have been the championship’s most explosive attacking team.
They scored 0-32 against Drom and followed it with 3-23 against Kiladangan.
That is 64 point-equivalents, an average of 32 per game.
Devon Ryan has 0-19.
Ger Browne has been one of the most influential players in the championship and has produced 1-06 from play.
Oisín O’Donoghue has been excellent.
And the Kiladangan game added David McGrath and Cathal Quinn to the goal threat.
The concern remains at the other end.
Cashel have conceded 59, the highest total in the championship.
Drom scored 0-28.
Kiladangan scored 3-22.
At some stage, Cashel will have to reduce that number if they are going to win the Dan Breen Cup.
Roscrea may be the perfect game in which to work on it.
The North side have been far better than zero points suggests.
They gave Kiladangan serious problems after half-time in Round 1 and were desperately unlucky against Drom.
Roscrea led by three late before Tony Cahill’s goal changed everything.
They hit sixteen wides in that defeat.
That statistic sums up their championship.
They have been competitive enough to survive.
They have not been clinical enough to win.
Shane Fletcher has 0-14 and remains a reliable source of scores, but Roscrea need more efficiency across the attack.
The freedom of knowing their group position cannot change may actually help.
But Cashel’s attacking depth is difficult to oppose.
Even with possible rotation, they should create enough.
Predicted score: Cashel King Cormacs 2-22 Roscrea 1-20
Prediction: Cashel King Cormacs by 5
Holycross/Ballycahill v Upperchurch-Drombane
Saturday, 6.30pm
Venue: Borrisoleigh
This is one of the most dangerous games of the weekend for anyone relying purely on the table.
Holycross have two points.
Upperchurch have zero.
Holycross are ranked among the leading contenders.
Upperchurch sit at the bottom of our power rankings.
So Holycross win comfortably?
Not necessarily.
Upperchurch were poor enough against Thurles Sarsfields in Round 1 despite scoring three goals.
They were considerably better against Kilruane.
They fought back, drew level in injury time and then conceded the decisive free.
That 1-20 to 1-19 defeat showed that Upperchurch are not finished.
Pat Ryan has scored 0-14.
Philip O’Dwyer, Gavin Ryan, Paul Shanahan and Conor Fahey have provided goal threat across the opening rounds.
If they are going to beat Holycross, goals are probably the route.
Holycross have conceded four in two games.
Two against Kilruane.
Two against Thurles.
And their own attack has not yet exploded in the way many expected.
Robbie Ryan remains the key open-play threat.
He has 2-04 from play across the championship and scored both Holycross goals against Thurles.
Darragh Woods has 0-19 and is punishing almost every concession from frees.
Beyond those two, there is room for improvement.
That is where Joe Caesar becomes important.
Holycross need more from him and from the surrounding attack.
Against Thurles, Robbie Ryan looked like the one forward consistently capable of breaking the opposition defensive structure.
That cannot become the template.
The encouraging factor for Holycross is that they were below their best against Sarsfields and still had the game level at 2-15 apiece late on.
They are young.
They should improve for that experience.
Upperchurch will make this unpleasant, particularly if they remain within a score entering the final quarter.
But Holycross should have enough speed and scoring power to survive.
Predicted score: Holycross/Ballycahill 2-21 Upperchurch-Drombane 1-18
Prediction: Holycross/Ballycahill by 6
Kilruane MacDonaghs v Thurles Sarsfields
Saturday, 6.30pm
Venue: Templederry
One team has won both games.
The other has played two games decided by a single point.
That alone tells us what sort of contest this could become.
Thurles Sarsfields have emerged from Round 2 with their reputation enhanced considerably.
Their win over Holycross was not a smash-and-grab.
Sarsfields hit fourteen first-half wides and still led at the interval.
They conceded a Robbie Ryan goal within seconds of the restart and still did not panic.
When the game reached 2-15 apiece late on, Thurles produced the final surge.
Aidan McCormack.
Paddy Creedon.
Euan Murray.
Three points.
Game.
That was a serious championship finish.
Their defensive shape is also improving.
Conor Stakelum has looked excellent at centre-back.
Denis Maher’s return to the full-back line gave them stability.
And they have conceded only 44 point-equivalents, joint-second best in the championship.
Kilruane’s record looks ordinary at 1-1.
Their performances have been better than that.
They lost to Holycross by one and beat Upperchurch by one.
They have scored 47 and conceded 47.
Willie Cleary has 0-17, while Thomas Cleary has scored 2-02 and Niall O’Meara has eight points from play.
There are genuine scoring threats.
The problem is control.
Kilruane have allowed both games to reach the final moments.
Sarsfields have shown more ability to take control of decisive passages.
The venue should suit a tight battle.
Kilruane will make it difficult.
But Thurles have more scoring depth, a better defensive return and appear to be developing confidence at exactly the right moment.
Predicted score: Thurles Sarsfields 1-22 Kilruane MacDonaghs 1-19
Prediction: Thurles Sarsfields by 3
Nenagh Éire Óg v Toomevara
Sunday, 3.00pm
Venue: Cloughjordan
Forget the power rankings for a moment.
This is Nenagh against Toomevara.
That changes things.
Nenagh enter with momentum after dismantling Mullinahone.
Toome enter under pressure after taking one point from two games.
But local rivalry has a habit of ignoring form.
Nenagh’s Round 2 response was impressive.
They scored 3-26 officially, did it without Jake Morris and Mason Cawley and found a much healthier spread of scorers.
Ben West was outstanding.
Philip Hickey carried goal threat.
Josh Keller led the line.
Sam O’Farrell delivered from frees.
The attack that struggled against JK Brackens suddenly looked alive.
Nenagh have now scored 57 point-equivalents across two games.
Toomevara have scored 42.
That 15-point gap is significant.
Toome’s biggest problem remains Darragh McCarthy’s fitness.
He came on after 18 minutes against JK Brackens and scored six frees, but his influence from play was understandably limited.
A fully functioning McCarthy changes this game.
So does Adam Hall.
Hall has 1-06 from play and has been Toomevara’s most dangerous attacker.
Jack Delaney is also beginning to find form.
Against Brackens, Toome were level late.
Then they collapsed.
JK scored seven of the final eight points.
That finish is difficult to ignore.
Nenagh’s own weakness is clear.
Their defensive structure looked vulnerable against Brackens, particularly when turnovers exposed them.
Toome need to force those mistakes.
They cannot allow Nenagh a clean, open game.
This has to become a derby, physically and tactically.
If it does, Toome can push them close.
But Nenagh’s greater scoring depth should ultimately decide it.
Predicted score: Nenagh Éire Óg 2-22 Toomevara 1-21
Prediction: Nenagh Éire Óg by 4
JK Brackens v CJK Mullinahone
Sunday, 3.00pm
Venue: Leahy Park, Cashel
The biggest question here may be motivation.
JK Brackens have already won Group 4.
Mullinahone are fighting for their championship.
That usually creates danger for the team with nothing tangible at stake.
But Brackens have looked like one of the most complete teams in the competition.
They scored four goals against Nenagh.
Then they showed they did not need goals to win, hitting 0-28 against Toomevara.
Most impressively, that Round 2 win came without Lyndon Fairbrother.
Jamie Ormond assumed greater scoring responsibility and hit 0-09.
Shane Doyle scored five.
Eanna McBride and Andrew Ormond contributed.
Paddy Cadell controlled huge areas of the game.
Their +14 scoring differential is the best in the championship.
They have also conceded only 44.
That balance is why they have already secured top spot.
Mullinahone have the opposite problem.
Michael Dunne is second in the championship scoring race on 0-23, but much of that total has come from placed balls.
Their open-play attack has not generated enough.
They have scored only 43 point-equivalents and conceded 55.
The Nenagh defeat was particularly concerning because the game was getting away from them before the red card could be used as an explanation.
Mullinahone need a massive response.
Brackens may make changes.
That keeps the game closer than the raw numbers suggest.
But there is enough depth in this JK squad to expect them to maintain momentum.
Predicted score: JK Brackens 2-22 CJK Mullinahone 1-18
Prediction: JK Brackens by 7
Clonoulty/Rossmore v Loughmore-Castleiney
Sunday, 3.30pm
Venue: Holycross
The most difficult game of the weekend to predict.
One team has two points.
The other has none.
And we are picking the team with none.
That probably tells you everything about Loughmore-Castleiney.
Their county championship form has been poor.
There is no avoiding that.
0-15 against Moycarkey was their lowest attacking return in years.
The performance improved significantly against Borris-Ileigh, with Loughmore scoring 1-24 and leading at half-time, but three second-half Borris goals sent them to a second defeat.
They have now scored only 42, joint-lowest in the championship.
John McGrath has 0-20 and remains heavily responsible for their scoreboard.
Those are serious warning signs.
But Loughmore have also won the Mid Championship and already possess their preliminary quarter-final safety net.
More importantly, they still have the personnel and championship knowledge that made them champions.
Clonoulty are exactly the sort of opponent that could expose their current problems.
They have scored 53.
Jack Ryan has 2-05 from play.
Cathal Bourke was superb against Moycarkey.
Stephen Ferncombe has 1-14 overall.
And Clonoulty have their own divisional safety net.
The problem for Clonoulty has been goals conceded.
Five in two games.
Borris scored two.
Moycarkey scored three.
If there is one game where Loughmore need to rediscover their goal threat, this is it.
There is almost no statistical justification for the prediction.
It is based on championship behaviour.
At 0-2, with questions being asked everywhere, Loughmore are exactly where they have historically been most dangerous.
We are giving them one more vote.
Predicted score: Loughmore-Castleiney 1-22 Clonoulty/Rossmore 1-20
Prediction: Loughmore-Castleiney by 2
Borris-Ileigh v Moycarkey-Borris
Sunday, 3.30pm
Venue: The Ragg
Attack against defence.
This might be the most fascinating statistical match-up of Round 3.
Borris-Ileigh have scored 57 point-equivalents.
Moycarkey-Borris have conceded only 39.
Something has to give.
Eddie Ryan is the hottest scorer in the championship.
His 1-26 includes a remarkable 1-16 against Loughmore.
Paddy McCormack has added genuine goal threat.
Jack Bevans scored a superb goal in Round 2.
Conor Kenny and James Devaney contribute.
Borris can hurt teams in several ways.
The concern is defence.
They have conceded 56.
Only Drom and Cashel have conceded more.
That makes Moycarkey fascinating opponents because they do not need a shootout.
They have beaten Loughmore 1-19 to 0-15.
They have beaten Clonoulty 3-17 to 2-18.
Two completely different games.
Two victories.
That adaptability is championship gold.
David Costigan has scored 3-01 from play.
His ability to arrive into scoring positions is becoming one of Moycarkey’s greatest weapons.
Kieran Morris provides reliable scoring.
Stephen Walsh was excellent against Clonoulty.
Jack Hayes came off the bench and scored a goal.
And Rhys Shelly’s long puckouts are increasingly functioning as attacking deliveries rather than simple restarts.
The battle around Eddie Ryan will decide much.
If Borris can turn this into an open game and force Moycarkey into the high twenties, they have an excellent chance.
But Moycarkey have shown no inclination to allow opponents to dictate that kind of contest.
Thirty-nine conceded across two games is too strong a number to ignore.
This will be extremely tight.
We trust the defence.
Predicted score: Moycarkey-Borris 1-21 Borris-Ileigh 1-19
Prediction: Moycarkey-Borris by 2
The Premier View Round 3 Predictions
Drom & Inch v Kiladangan
Kiladangan by 4
Cashel King Cormacs v Roscrea
Cashel King Cormacs by 5
Holycross/Ballycahill v Upperchurch-Drombane
Holycross/Ballycahill by 6
Kilruane MacDonaghs v Thurles Sarsfields
Thurles Sarsfields by 3
Nenagh Éire Óg v Toomevara
Nenagh Éire Óg by 4
JK Brackens v CJK Mullinahone
JK Brackens by 7
Clonoulty/Rossmore v Loughmore-Castleiney
Loughmore-Castleiney by 2
Borris-Ileigh v Moycarkey-Borris
Moycarkey-Borris by 2
There are safer predictions in there.
There are also two or three that could look very stupid by Sunday evening.
That is probably a good sign.
Because after two rounds, the main lesson from the Tipperary Senior Hurling Championship is that the gap between the leading teams and the middle of the pack is nowhere near as large as the table can make it appear.
Round 3 is where the theories end.
For some teams, the next sixty minutes open the road towards the Dan Breen Cup.
For others, they open the door to a preliminary quarter-final.
And for a few, they could open the trapdoor towards relegation.
Eight games.
Plenty of data.
But by Sunday evening, only the scoreboard will matter.