Tipperary SHC Quarter-Finals & Relegation Battles, A Full Analysis.

The Tipperary Senior Hurling Championship is hitting boiling point. After weeks of group stage hurling, the field has narrowed to the last eight in the race for the Dan Breen Cup. Semple Stadium is the stage for a blockbuster weekend of quarter-finals, while four proud clubs fight for their very survival in the relegation semi-finals.

It’s the part of the year where reputation, experience, and cold numbers all come under the spotlight. We’ve crunched the stats, scoring averages, goals per game, free dependence, and spread of scorers, to set the scene. And, crucially for punters, we’ve done an analysis of the bookies possible odds and pinpointed where the value might lie in the markets.

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Moycarkey-Borris v Drom & Inch

📍 Semple Stadium, Sunday 28th, 2.00pm

This could be the game of the weekend for the neutral. Moycarkey have been one of the most watchable sides in the county so far, averaging 27.33 points with a hefty 2.3 goals a game. Their edge comes from their knack of finding the net, but they lean heavily on Kieran Morris 2-25, who has almost 40% of their total. If he catches fire, Moycarkey could shock anyone, but if he’s shackled, the rest of the team has to step up.

Drom & Inch are only a shade ahead statistically, at 29 points and 2.75 goals per game, but they spread their scores more widely. Seamus Callanan 2-29 remains their go-to man, but they also have 14 other scorers to call on,Cormac Fitzpatrick currently top of the from play chart with 1-14,but also David Collins with 2-07 from Play and Lorcan Campion with 1-09 in the same from Play column, which gives them more variety and unpredictability. Importantly, Drom are less reliant on frees (24% of scores) compared to Moycarkey’s 28%, which often translates into more reliable production in championship intensity.

Moycarkey concede 25.67 points a game, leaving gaps that stronger sides can exploit. Drom are even leakier at 26.25, relying more on firepower than solidity.

Fair odds: Drom & Inch 5/6, Moycarkey-Borris 6/5, Draw 17/2.
Where’s the value? If the layers chalk Moycarkey up at 9/4 or bigger, they become the bet — their goal threat alone makes them dangerous underdogs. Drom deserve to shade favouritism, but if they’re odds-on across the board, there’s not much juice.

Verdict: Drom to sneak it by a couple of points, but this one screams high-scoring and drama.

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Holycross-Ballycahill v Cashel King Cormacs

📍 Semple Stadium, Saturday 27th, 2.30pm

Holycross have emerged as dark horses. With nearly 29 points per game and 2.7 goals, they boast the third-best attack left in the competition. Darragh Woods has led the line with 1-28, but they’ve spread scores across 15 players — a sign of a team humming in attack.

Cashel, by contrast, are plucky but simply don’t carry the same punch. They’re averaging just 24.3 points per game, with only one goal per outing, and rely on frees for 36% of their tally. That kind of scoring profile rarely topples a side in form.

Holycross have one of the weaker records at the back, shipping 26.75 on average. Cashel are much tighter, conceding just 22.67 a game, Fourth best in the Tipperary SHC. It’s attack versus discipline here, with Cashel holding the defensive edge.

The challenge for Cashel is psychological as well as tactical. They’ll need to drag this contest into a scrap, disrupt Holycross’s rhythm, and slow the ball down. If they allow it to be free-flowing, the favourites will run riot.

Fair odds: Holycross 1/4, Cashel 7/2, Draw 9/1.
Where’s the value? Holycross are unbackable at much shorter than 2/7, but if they sit around that mark or even 1/3, they’re worth putting in accumulators. Cashel only tempt if priced 4/1+, and even then it’s an optimistic punt.

Verdict: Holycross by 5–7, comfortably into the last four.

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Nenagh Éire Óg v Kilruane MacDonaghs

📍 Semple Stadium, Sunday 28th, 4.00pm

The most finely balanced of the four ties. Nenagh average 26.67 points with 1.5 goals, Kilruane average 26.25 with a 1.25 goal goal average. Both depend on their leading lights: Mikey Heffernan with 1-29 (42% of Nenagh’s tally) and Willie Cleary with 0-36 (36% of Kilruane’s).

This reliance on a single scorer is both a strength and a risk. A hot day from Heffernan or Cleary could swing it, but disciplined defending could choke a team’s entire attack. Both sides are also free-dependent (31% and 35% respectively), so how the referee sets the tone could be decisive.

Nenagh boast the second best defence in the Tipperary Senior Hurling Championship, conceding only 20.67 per game. Kilruane are looser at the back, averaging 23.5, which could tell in a close contest. Nenagh’s meaner defence may prove their trump card.

Fair odds: Nenagh 10/11, Kilruane 11/10, Draw 17/2.
Where’s the value? This is a classic toss of a coin. The smart punter waits to see which way the market drifts. If Nenagh push out to 2/1, they’re the play. If Kilruane hit 2/1, likewise. The draw also has a whiff of value here, being more likely than in any of the other quarter-finals.

Verdict: Nenagh by a whisker, maybe a single point. But nothing would surprise here.

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Loughmore-Castleiney v Toomevara

📍 Semple Stadium, Saturday 27th, 4.30pm

Loughmore are simply a class apart statistically. They average 32.33 points per game, more than three points clear of the next-best, and hit 2.3 goals a match. They’ve had 18 different scorers, which underlines their depth. John McGrath tops their charts with 3-33 and 3-07 from play, but he is far from a lone threat.

Toomevara, by contrast, lean heavily on the 2-45 from Darragh McCarthy , who has contributed almost half of their scores. With just half a goal per game and 40% of their total coming from frees, they lack the offensive weapons to keep pace with Loughmore over 60 minutes.

Loughmore’s defence is steady at 23.0 per game, but Toomevara stand apart as the stingiest backline in Tipperary, conceding just 19.5. If they can maintain that resistance, they’ll ask real questions of Loughmore’s vaunted attack.

Fair odds: Loughmore 2/9, Toomevara 3/1, Draw 9/1.
Where’s the value? Loughmore are justified odds-on favourites and still playable at 1/3 or bigger. Toome only appeal if stretched to 4/1 or longer.

Verdict: Loughmore by 6–8, flexing their muscles again.

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Relegation Semi-Finals

Roscrea v Lorrha-Dorrha

📍 Cloughjordan, Saturday 27th, 4.00pm

This is do-or-die territory. Roscrea’s scoring has been the weakest in the senior grade, averaging just 20 points and .667 of a goal per game. Lorrha, on the other hand, have averaged 24.3 and two goals a match. Colm Fogarty 0-26 has been a consistent source, but Lorrha also look more dangerous from play.

Roscrea concede 26.0 per game, not disastrous but far from watertight. Lorrha, though, are the most generous defence in the Tipperary SHC, leaking 34.0 on average. It’s a case of who can patch up quicker in a survival scrap.

In relegation dogfights, nerves and tension can narrow gaps, but on paper Lorrha carry more firepower and should survive.

Fair odds: Lorrha 2/5, Roscrea 3/1, Draw 9/1.
Where’s the value? Lorrha backable down to 4/9. Roscrea only for romantics if they drift to 3/1+.

Verdict: Lorrha to win by a green flag, consigning Roscrea to the trapdoor.

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Clonoulty-Rossmore v Mullinahone

📍 Cashel, Sunday 28th, 4.00pm

A fascinating clash of styles. Clonoulty average 25.75 points with two goals per game, but the numbers reveal their weaknesses. Nearly half their scores (47%) come from frees, and Stephen Ferncombe 5:42 and average 14:25 per game has carried 55% of their total — a huge burden for one player. If discipline is good and Ferncombe is marshalled, they may find scores hard to come by.

Mullinahone aren’t prolific either, averaging 20.67 points with 1.3 goals, but Sean Curran 1-26 plays a similar role to Ferncombe, providing almost half their tally.

Both sides have struggled badly at the back: Clonoulty concede 29.0 per game, Mullinahone 29.33. With little between them defensively, survival may come down to who can stem the flow just enough to edge it.

Fair odds: Clonoulty 2/7, Mullinahone 3/1, Draw 9/1.
Where’s the value? Clonoulty are fair favourites, but punters might look for an alternative angle. Mullinahone at 9/2+ is worth a small swing, banking on Clonoulty’s reliance on frees being exposed.

Verdict: Clonoulty to edge it by 3–5, but it may be more nervy than their odds suggest.

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Final Predictions

• Drom & Inch to edge Moycarkey in the weekend’s shootout.
• Holycross-Ballycahill to have too much for Cashel.
• Nenagh Éire Óg to sneak past Kilruane in the tightest contest.
• Loughmore-Castleiney to underline why they’re championship favourites.
• Lorrha-Dorrha to survive at Roscrea’s expense.
• Clonoulty-Rossmore to just about do enough against Mullinahone.

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