Tipperary SHC Preliminary Quarter-Final Predictions
The group stage is finished.
The safety net is gone.
For four teams, sixty-odd minutes now separates a place in the last eight of the Dan Breen Cup from the end of their county championship.
And these are two fascinating preliminary quarter-finals because the four teams arrive by very different routes.
Holycross/Ballycahill have been one of the stronger statistical teams across the opening three rounds but now face the defending champions.
Loughmore-Castleiney have produced an underwhelming group campaign by their standards, but finally showed signs of life when they needed them against Clonoulty/Rossmore.
Nenagh Éire Óg have recovered strongly from a damaging opening-round defeat.
Clonoulty/Rossmore have lost twice, conceded seven goals, finished bottom of the Group 2 mini-table, yet remain one of the hardest sides in the championship to kill off.
Here is how we see the two games.
Loughmore-Castleiney v Holycross/Ballycahill
Saturday, September 5
5.00pm
The Ragg
Referee: Michael Kennedy
The numbers
Loughmore-Castleiney
Played: 3
Won: 1
Lost: 2
Scored: 69
Conceded: 76
Scoring difference: -7
Average scored: 23.00
Average conceded: 25.33
Holycross/Ballycahill
Played: 3
Won: 2
Lost: 1
Scored: 78
Conceded: 68
Scoring difference: +10
Average scored: 26.00
Average conceded: 22.67
On the raw three-round data, Holycross have the edge at both ends.
They are averaging three point-equivalents more per game in attack and conceding almost three fewer.
That is significant.
How they got here
Loughmore’s group stage has been deeply unusual.
The defending champions started with a 1-19 to 0-15 defeat to Moycarkey-Borris.
Fifteen points.
For a Loughmore attack, that was an alarmingly low return.
Round 2 was much better offensively.
They scored 1-24 against Borris-Ileigh, led at half-time and looked far more like themselves.
But they conceded three second-half goals and lost again.
That left them 0-2 entering the Clonoulty game.
And then, finally, Loughmore exploded.
The opening seven minutes of Round 3 were the best hurling they have produced in the county championship.
2-5 to 0-0.
Ciaran McCormack goal.
John McGrath goal.
Brian McGrath, Liam McGrath and Ed Connolly all scoring.
For the first time in the county group stage, Loughmore looked like the defending champions.
The slight concern is what happened afterwards.
Clonoulty outscored them over the remainder of the game and eventually got within striking distance.
Loughmore won 2-21 to 2-18, but they did not sustain the extraordinary level of their opening ten minutes.
That matters against Holycross.
Why Holycross can win
Holycross’s overall statistical profile is substantially cleaner.
They have scored 78 and conceded 68.
Only Moycarkey-Borris have a clearly superior defensive return among the major contenders.
Their one defeat came against Thurles Sarsfields by two points, and Holycross still managed to get that game level late despite not producing their best performance.
Then came Round 3.
Upperchurch-Drombane gave them serious trouble for thirty minutes.
Holycross were 0-14 to 0-11 behind at the interval.
And then they absolutely took over.
The second half was devastating.
Darragh Woods goaled.
Robbie Ryan started finding space.
Tiarnán Ryan drove through the middle.
Eoin Craddock became involved.
The scoring spread widened.
Holycross eventually won 1-28 to 0-20.
Most encouragingly, twelve players contributed to the scoreboard.
That is important because Holycross had been too reliant on Woods and Robbie Ryan through the opening rounds.
The key scoring battle
Darragh Woods has been outstanding.
His exact championship return is:
1-27 overall.
He is one of the leading scorers in the championship.
Robbie Ryan gives Holycross the open-play threat that makes the matchup particularly dangerous for Loughmore.
Ryan has:
2-09 overall.
2-07 from play.
That is a serious inside-forward return.
Loughmore’s central attacking figure remains John McGrath.
He has 1-26 across the three rounds and was Player of the Match against Clonoulty after scoring 1-06.
The encouraging thing for Loughmore was that Round 3 finally produced support around him.
Liam McGrath scored six points.
Philip O’Connell scored three.
Ed Connolly scored three.
Brian McGrath was pushed further forward.
That broader spread has to continue.
If Loughmore become overly dependent on John McGrath again, Holycross have enough defensive quality to make life extremely difficult.
The tactical question
The fascinating move in Round 3 was Noel McGrath to centre-back and Brian McGrath into a more advanced role.
It worked.
Loughmore were much more fluent.
But they also picked up injury concerns around Liam McGrath, John Meagher and Ciaran Connolly.
Holycross have their own concern with Joe Caesar, who missed Round 3 with a knee problem.
Availability could therefore matter enormously.
But the fundamental tactical battle is simple.
Can Loughmore slow the Holycross running game?
Holycross are at their most dangerous when Woods, Tiarnán Ryan, Robbie Ryan and the players around them begin coming onto possession at pace.
Upperchurch stopped that during the first half of Round 3.
Once Holycross got moving after the break, the game disappeared very quickly.
Loughmore cannot allow that sort of 15-minute burst.
Why this is so difficult to call
Everything statistical points towards Holycross.
Better record.
More scored.
Less conceded.
Better scoring difference.
More consistent performances.
But this is Loughmore-Castleiney.
That cannot simply be dismissed as sentiment.
They have lived in this championship environment.
They have repeatedly won knockout games where the form guide suggested vulnerability.
And Round 3 provided the first evidence that their championship instincts may be returning.
If Loughmore reproduce their opening ten minutes against Clonoulty for substantially longer, Holycross are in serious trouble.
I just do not think the evidence across all three rounds says they can sustain that level yet.
Holycross have been the more consistent team.
They have defended better.
They have a stronger overall scoring profile.
And they have enough goal threat through Robbie Ryan and enough placed-ball quality through Woods to punish Loughmore if the champions’ defensive issues resurface.
Prediction
This will be close.
Very close.
I expect Loughmore to make it ugly enough that Holycross never fully settle.
I expect John McGrath to keep the champions in touch.
But over sixty-plus minutes, the Holycross running game and stronger defensive numbers just tip it.
Predicted score: Holycross/Ballycahill 1-22 Loughmore-Castleiney 1-20
Predicted winner: Holycross/Ballycahill
Winning margin: 2 points
Clonoulty/Rossmore v Nenagh Eire Og
Sunday, September 6
3.30pm
Borrisoleigh
Referee: Conor Doyle
The numbers
Clonoulty/Rossmore
Played: 3
Won: 1
Lost: 2
Scored: 77
Conceded: 80
Scoring difference: -3
Average scored: 25.67
Average conceded: 26.67
Nenagh Éire Óg
Played: 3
Won: 2
Lost: 1
Scored: 82
Conceded: 70
Scoring difference: +12
Average scored: 27.33
Average conceded: 23.33
This one is more straightforward statistically.
Nenagh have scored more.
They have conceded substantially less.
They have a +12 differential compared with Clonoulty’s -3.
And their form curve is moving sharply upwards.
Clonoulty’s strange championship
Clonoulty have been involved in three genuinely competitive games.
They beat Borris-Ileigh 3-20 to 2-21.
They lost to Moycarkey-Borris 3-17 to 2-18.
They lost to Loughmore-Castleiney 2-21 to 2-18.
That is an extraordinary amount of goal activity.
Clonoulty themselves have scored seven goals.
But they have also conceded seven.
That is the central issue.
Their attack can hurt teams.
Their defence has been too easy to goal.
And that becomes especially concerning when the next opposition have Jake Morris and Ben West.
The Clonoulty attacking case
Stephen Ferncombe is having a huge championship.
2-23 overall.
Twenty-nine point-equivalents.
He is carrying an enormous share of the scoring load and remains a major threat from placed balls.
Jack Ryan has produced:
2-06 from play.
That is twelve point-equivalents created from open play.
He gives Clonoulty exactly the kind of direct goal threat required in knockout hurling.
Cathal Bourke has also provided drive and goal threat.
Robert Doyle has been one of their most important players.
Michael Ryan has chipped in.
They have enough weapons to trouble Nenagh.
And Clonoulty’s greatest quality remains almost impossible to quantify.
They do not go away.
Borris looked capable of beating them in Round 1.
Clonoulty won.
Moycarkey repeatedly threatened to put distance between the teams.
Clonoulty came back and levelled late.
Loughmore went 2-5 to 0-0 ahead after seven minutes.
Clonoulty still got themselves back into a position where the champions were under pressure in injury time.
That resilience is real.
Nenagh will need to beat them more than once.
Why Nenagh are favourites
Nenagh’s championship has gone in the opposite direction.
Round 1 was a disaster.
JK Brackens scored four goals.
Nenagh looked vulnerable in possession.
The defensive structure broke down.
The short game was repeatedly exposed.
Since then?
Two wins.
Six goals scored.
Two goals conceded.
A completely different team.
Against Mullinahone they responded with 3-25.
Ben West scored twice.
Philip Hickey got another.
Barry Heffernan controlled the centre.
The scoring spread improved dramatically.
Then came the real test.
Toomevara.
Local rivals.
Qualification on the line.
A huge crowd.
Nenagh were excellent.
They did not just win.
They controlled the contest.
Barry Heffernan was outstanding again at centre-back and was Player of the Match.
The swarm-tackling worked.
Toomevara were repeatedly turned over.
James Mackey did huge work.
Conor Ryan was prominent.
The half-forward line worked ferociously without the ball.
And then Jake Morris supplied the cutting edge.
The Jake Morris factor
This may be the biggest single difference between the two teams.
Morris missed Round 2.
He returned against Toomevara.
2-04.
Two goals.
Clinical.
His first punished a defensive mistake.
His second came from a Ben West clearance and killed the contest.
Nenagh did not have that finishing threat against JK Brackens.
They do now.
And beside him, Ben West has built an excellent championship.
West has:
3-03 from play.
Twelve point-equivalents.
All from open play.
That is an extremely dangerous pairing to send against a defence that has conceded seven goals.
This is where the matchup begins to tilt heavily towards Nenagh.
Clonoulty’s biggest weakness meets one of Nenagh’s biggest strengths.
The other end
Nenagh’s defensive figures are quietly very good.
They have conceded 70 across the three rounds.
But that includes the disastrous four-goal opening game.
Since then:
Mullinahone scored 1-20.
Toomevara scored 1-14.
That is only two goals conceded across those two matches.
Barry Heffernan’s form has been a huge factor.
The defence looks more connected.
The work-rate ahead of them has improved.
And Nenagh have become much harder to run through.
That gives them a better chance of limiting Ferncombe’s frees and preventing Jack Ryan getting the type of clean possession from which Clonoulty can create goals.
Where Clonoulty can win it
Discipline.
Physical pressure.
And turning this into a game Nenagh do not enjoy.
If Clonoulty can prevent Barry Heffernan controlling the centre, stop Nenagh building clean possession and force them into a direct battle, the entire complexion changes.
Ferncombe can punish every foul.
Jack Ryan can goal.
Clonoulty will not panic if they fall four or five behind.
They have already proven that.
Nenagh therefore cannot assume that one scoring burst finishes this.
Against Toomevara, Morris’s second goal effectively ended the contest.
Against Clonoulty, it might only begin another fight.
The call
I trust Nenagh’s trajectory more.
The numbers are stronger.
The defence is conceding 3.34 fewer point-equivalents per game.
The attack is scoring almost two more.
The scoring differential gap is fifteen points.
More importantly, their most dangerous forward is back.
Morris plus West against a Clonoulty defence that has conceded seven goals is the matchup I cannot get away from.
Clonoulty will make this competitive.
They always do.
Ferncombe will score.
Jack Ryan will threaten.
But Nenagh currently have more ways to win the game.
Prediction
I expect Clonoulty to be within one score well into the second half.
Then I think Nenagh’s greater open-play threat separates them.
Predicted score: Nenagh Éire Óg 2-21 Clonoulty/Rossmore 2-17
Predicted winner: Nenagh Éire Óg
Winning margin: 4 points
The Premier View Calls
Loughmore-Castleiney v Holycross/Ballycahill
➡️ Holycross/Ballycahill by 2
Predicted score: Holycross 1-22 Loughmore 1-20
Clonoulty/Rossmore v Nenagh Éire Óg
➡️ Nenagh Éire Óg by 4
Predicted score: Nenagh 2-21 Clonoulty 2-17
The Saturday game is the one I would have the least confidence in.
The data says Holycross.
The defending champions’ knockout pedigree says beware.
On Sunday, the evidence is stronger.
Nenagh’s improvement over Rounds 2 and 3, combined with Jake Morris’s return and Clonoulty’s problems conceding goals, makes them the more convincing selection.
Our two teams to reach the county quarter-finals: Holycross/Ballycahill and Nenagh Éire Óg.