Premier Intermediate Final Preview

Carrick Swan v Upperchurch Drombane

Form, facts, trends, and a grounded prediction

County final week in Tipperary brings a different energy to the air, a mix of hard figures, old stories, and the kind of certainty that only a full winter of training can buy. This season, Carrick Swan come in battle hardened, top of Group 4 with three wins, and two knockout victories to follow. Upperchurch Drombane arrive on the back of a gritty group campaign that featured a day saving long range free to the net, then two calm and controlled knockout wins over Killenaule and Gortnahoe Glengoole.

The numbers are close. The styles have an edge. The key men are in form. There is plenty to chew on.

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The form picture in one glance

Carrick Swan, five county championship games, scored 7-88 and conceded 2-87. That totals 109 points for, 93 points against, a per game return of 21.8 scored and 18.6 conceded, and a total scoring difference of +16 across the five matches.

Upperchurch Drombane, five county championship games, scored 2-98 and conceded 3-77. That totals 104 points for, 86 points against, a per game return of 20.8 scored and 17.2 conceded, and a total scoring difference of +18 across the five matches.

The headline is simple, Swan carry the greater goal threat, 7 championship goals in five, while Upperchurch concede less, 17.2 against per game, and have kept clean sheets in two of their five. Swan have been more explosive in bursts, Upperchurch have been steadier across longer passages. The final should land in the space between those two truths.

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Carrick Swan, the road to the final

Round 1, Group 4

Carrick Swan 1-18, Clonakenny 0-16
Boherlahan, a gale blowing, and a game of two halves. Clonakenny used the wind to lead 0-12 to 0-06 at the break, Cian O’Dwyer the main man. Swan struck nine wides into the breeze in that first half. The second half flipped the script. Aaron Dunne smashed a top corner goal after 38 minutes, the momentum swung, and Swan finished the stronger. Calum Lanigan settled into his free taking, while Stefan Tobin and Callum Walsh chipped in.
Player of the Match, Aaron Dunne.

Round 2, Group 4

Carrick Swan 3-16, Killenaule 0-22
Second South derby meeting in four weeks, and a second win for the Swan. The start was blistering, a penalty to Aaron O’Halloran inside 30 seconds, buried past John O’Dwyer, then a quick second when Stefan Tobin finished a rebound for 2-01 to 0-3 after seven minutes. Killenaule matched them point for point from there, but Swan carried the three green flags, Tobin bagged his second after the break for 3-09 to 0-13, and Lanigan landed eight points, seven from frees, in a composed display.
Player of the Match, Calum Lanigan.

Round 3, Group 4

Carrick Swan 1-15, St Mary’s 1-14
Already assured of knockout hurling from the South title, Swan still wanted the top seed and they got it. Callum Lanigan nailed twelve points, nine frees and two 65s, and kept the coolest head in injury time with the winner. Peter McGarry had early netted for St Mary’s, Aidan Waters answered with a late Swan goal, and the sides were level on 62 minutes, before the last Lanigan free settled a savage contest.
Player of the Match, Aaron O’Halloran.

Quarter final

Carrick Swan 0-21, Silvermines 1-14
This was a test of patience. Jason Forde hit seven for Silvermines, and Seán Nolan found the net on 51 minutes to tighten it to two. Swan had led by seven in the third quarter, but the tide threatened to turn until Lanigan found two frees to ease it back out, nine points in total with six from placed balls. Aaron Dunne and Stefan Tobin were constant threats, Gavin O’Halloran influential out the field. Red for a Silvermines sub late on, and Swan saw out the four point win.
Player of the Match, Calum Lanigan.

Semi final

Carrick Swan 2-18, Boherlahan, Dualla 0-21
Two goals, one either side of half time, both by Aaron Dunne, defined the day. The first came on 28 minutes to build a four point lead at the break, the second arrived three minutes into the second half to put the South men in command. Boherlahan rallied hard, Tomas Ryan landed 0-12, ten frees, and they closed to a single score in added time, but Lanigan had 0-09, six frees, Tobin 0-03, Taylor Fleming crucial points, and Swan were too savvy to let it slip.
Player of the Match, Aaron Dunne.

Carrick Swan by the numbers

• Total scored 7-88, 109 points
• Total conceded 2-87, 93 points
• Average scored 21.8 per game
• Average conceded 18.6 per game
• Goals for 7, goals against 2
• Knockout return 0-21 and 2-18, both wins, combined 2-39 for, 1-35 against

Carrick Swan key men, and repeat patterns

• Calum Lanigan, the metronome on placed balls, impressive returns in tight games, 0-12 v St Mary’s, 0-09 v Silvermines, 0-09 v Boherlahan.
• Aaron Dunne, the big game forward, 1-03 in the opener, 2-02 in the semi, the kind of forward who forces decisions in crowded goalmouths.
• Stefan Tobin, a poacher with timing, 2-01 v Killenaule, 0-02 v Silvermines, always hovering on the shoulder.
• Half back and midfield platform, Gavin O’Halloran, Ben Mulcaire, Luke O’Dwyer, steady ball winners who keep frees to a manageable figure and feed the shooters.

Carrick Swan warning lights

• Periods of wayward shooting, particularly into the wind against Clonakenny, and a few third quarter lulls that invited pressure from Silvermines and Boherlahan. The finishing kick has been good, that is a positive, but an open door invites company.

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Upperchurch Drombane, the road to the final

Round 1, Group 1

Moneygall 1-15, Upperchurch Drombane 0-18
A cagey, low scoring opener that finished level. Eoghan Doughan netted on three minutes for Moneygall, Luke Shanahan and Gavin Ryan did the bulk of the Church scoring, and the final act saw Doughan and Shanahan trade frees deep in injury time. Six wides in a four minute spell for Upperchurch between 48 and 52 minutes, yet the character was good, the finish was calm, and Conor Fahey took Man of the Match.

Round 2, Group 3

Upperchurch Drombane 1-24, Burgess 0-16
A statement of intent. Luke Shanahan struck 0-14, eleven frees, Gavin Ryan ran the show, Paudie Greene chipped in 0-02, and at the death Pat Shortt added a goal for an eleven point victory. Three red cards late drew most of the chatter after, but the key line is that the Church were five up with a quarter to go, then pulled cleanly away.
Player of the Match, Gavin Ryan.

Round 3, Group 3

Upperchurch, Drombane 1-16, Ballina 1-15
A wild finish. With Ballina three up in added time, Gavin Ryan lofted a 75 metre free to the goalmouth, it glanced netward and the game flipped. Paddy Phelan was Player of the Match with 0-04 from play and his constant movement.

Quarter final

Upperchurch Drombane 0-20, Killenaule 1-12
A more comfortable win than the margin suggests. Upperchurch were 0-17 to 0-09 up on 45 minutes, the work was done. Luke Shanahan hit 0-07 frees, Paddy Phelan 0-03, Pat Ryan 0-03, and Dean Carew bossed it at the back, earning Man of the Match. Killenaule got a late goal through Mark Stakelum, but the contest had been decided.

Semi final

Upperchurch Drombane 0-20, Gortnahoe, Glengoole 0-19
Nerves, wides, and a dramatic close. Gortnahoe led by two nearing the hour, but Paudie Greene and Luke Shanahan levelled it, Keane Hayes clipped the woodwork for Gortnahoe, and Paddy Phelan crowned a superb day with the winner and 0-06 from play. Ciaran Shortt had a key save in the first half, Keith Ryan made a brave intervention to prevent a goal after the break, and the Church hung on to the rope when it mattered.
Player of the Match, Paddy Phelan.

Upperchurch Drombane by the numbers

• Total scored 2-98, 104 points
• Total conceded 3-77, 86 points
• Average scored 20.8 per game
• Average conceded 17.2 per game
• Goals for 2, goals against 3
• Knockout return 0-20 and 0-20, both wins, combined 0-40 for, 1-31 against

Upperchurch Drombane key men, and repeat patterns

• Luke Shanahan, the primary free taker, double figure haul of 0-14 against Burgess, 0-7 frees v Killenaule, late equaliser v Gortnahoe, always on the ball in the big moments.
• Gavin Ryan, long range frees and general playmaking, the 75 metre bomb v Ballina changed the group outcome and the tone of the campaign.
• Paddy Phelan, a constant livewire, 0-04 from play v Ballina, 0-06 and Player of the Match in the semi final, movement and finishing that turns half chances into points.
• Defensive core, Keith Ryan, Dean Carew, Mikey Lavery, and Ciaran Shortt in goal, three games with no goals conceded, and the ability to ride out long passages without giving up greens.

Upperchurch, Drombane warning lights

• Periods of wastefulness, six wides in a four minute spell v Moneygall, ten second half wides by Gortnahoe let them off the hook, but the Church invited that pressure with a lull. Discipline on shot selection will be a factor.

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Set piece landscape

• Carrick Swan, Calum Lanigan is the primary free taker and 65 taker. He hit 12 points against St Mary’s, nine frees, two 65s, and one from play. He hit nine against Silvermines, six frees, and he hit nine again against Boherlahan, six frees. In the Killenaule win he also struck a heavy free tally, and he settled Round 3 with late dead balls. The trend is obvious, he is accurate and he is trusted from range.
• Upperchurch, Drombane, Luke Shanahan is the front line free taker, 0-14 against Burgess, eleven frees, 0-07 frees against Killenaule, and the last minute equaliser v Gortnahoe. Gavin Ryan hits the long rangers and 65s, and his deliveries can be directed on top of the square, as Ballina discovered.

This final could be won by the cleaner team in the tackle. If either side gifts the other more than ten scoreable frees, the arithmetic gets dangerous.

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Styles, matchups, and the pressure points

Swan’s goal power versus Upperchurch’s clean sheet habit is the central tension. Swan have hit seven goals in five games, 1.4 per game. Upperchurch have conceded only three goals in five, with clean sheets in their semi-final and in Round 2. In the games where Upperchurch do not concede a goal, their average concession is 17.5 points, which is a championship winning figure.

Centre to half forward is a key battleground. Swan want Aaron Dunne and Stefan Tobin running the lanes between full back and half back, especially on broken ball. Upperchurch will lean on Keith Ryan’s positioning and Dean Carew’s reading to close that gate, and on Gavin Ryan to start counters that finish with Phelan on the loop.

Free taking under pressure has been a consistent thread. Lanigan has put late frees over the bar in Round 3 and in the quarter final. Shanahan took the heat off the group stage in Round 3 and in the semi carried the mental load down the stretch. Close games do not allow for many misses.

Third quarter tempo appears in both sets of notes. Swan have had third quarter surges, against Silvermines and Boherlahan, to create daylight. Upperchurch had a third quarter squeeze on Killenaule, building an eight point cushion. Whoever manages the 35 to 50 minute window better, will likely lift the Seamus O’Riain.

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Paths compared, round by round

Carrick Swan

• Group 4, Round 1, beat Clonakenny 1-18 to 0-16, wind influenced, second half control.
• Group 4, Round 2, beat Killenaule 3-16 to 0-22, goals the difference.
• Group 4, Round 3, beat St Mary’s 1-15 to 1-14, Lanigan’s late free wins it.
• Quarter final, beat Silvermines 0-21 to 1-14, composed down the stretch.
• Semi final, beat Boherlahan, Dualla 2-18 to 0-21, Aaron Dunne double, Lanigan steady.

Upperchurch, Drombane

• Group 1 opener, drew with Moneygall 1-15 to 0-18, traded late frees.
• Group 3, Round 2, beat Burgess 1-24 to 0-16, pulled away strongly, 0-14 from Shanahan.
• Group 3, Round 3, beat Ballina 1-16 to 1-15, 75 metre free found the net at the death.
• Quarter final, beat Killenaule 0-20 to 1-12, controlled, strong third quarter.
• Semi final, beat Gortnahoe, Glengoole 0-20 to 0-19, Phelan winner, clean sheet intact.

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Interesting nuggets

1. Swan are averaging more than a goal per championship game. Seven goals in five outings is a rare clip in tightly refereed knockout hurling. The average is 1.4 goals per game.
2. Upperchurch have not conceded a goal in two of their last four. Clean sheets against Burgess and Gortnahoe are not an accident. The defensive shape is sound, the tracking is honest, and the goalkeeper Ciaran Shortt has come up with timely interventions.
3. Late scores have defined both campaigns. Lanigan’s injury time winner v St Mary’s protected the top seed. Gavin Ryan’s 75 metre free to the net v Ballina secured the group win. Phelan’s injury time point put Upperchurch into the final. The common trait is nerve, not luck.
4. The free takers are delivering big hauls when it matters. Shanahan 0-14 v Burgess, mostly frees. Lanigan 0-12 v St Mary’s, nine frees and two 65s. This final is likely to be decided within three or four points. Set piece accuracy has been the difference many times already this summer.
5. Both have beaten Killenaule on their way. Swan by three in a shootout settled by goals. Upperchurch by five with a controlled second half and no goals conceded. That shared measure adds a nice reference point for supporters trying to triangulate form.

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Headline strengths and possible cracks

Carrick Swan strengths

• Goals from play, multiple sources, Aaron Dunne the headline act, Stefan Tobin alert to rebounds and quick breaks.
• A reliable free taker in Calum Lanigan, calm in red time, happy on the 65s.
• Midfield and half backs who can win primary possession and limit soft frees.

Carrick Swan cracks to guard against

• In high wind conditions, early shooting slumps can occur, as seen v Clonakenny.
• The odd third quarter lull allowed Silvermines back in, and Boherlahan to believe. Tightening that middle third will help.

Upperchurch Drombane strengths

• Defensive structure with three clean sheets, good communication, and trust.
• A two pronged set piece unit with Luke Shanahan from the usual ranges, and Gavin Ryan capable from long distances.
• Multiple point scorers from play in key games, Paddy Phelan especially ruthless on the loop and in the corners.

Upperchurch Drombane cracks to guard against

• Spells of wastefulness, the six wides in four minutes v Moneygall jumps off the page, and if a game turns into a shootout without goals at the other end, the margins get thin.
• Fewer goals for, only two across five championship games, means they live more often on points, which increases the stress on free taking and shot selection.

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The prediction, using the Numbers and the Patterns

Scoring baselines

• Carrick Swan average scored 21.8, average conceded 18.6.
• Upperchurch average scored 20.8, average conceded 17.2.

These averages point toward a low to mid twenties points game, with a strong chance that a single goal will swing it. If Swan carry their typical goal threat into the final, one green flag likely puts them in front of the curve. If Upperchurch preserve the clean sheet, their points control and free taking should be enough to shade it.

Pivotal metrics to watch live

1. Goals conceded, if Upperchurch give up a first half goal, they will be pushed off their preferred rhythm and will need a wave of points to recover.
2. Number of frees conceded in scoring range, if either team concedes more than ten scorable frees, the opposition free taker will tilt the game.
3. Third quarter control, who wins minutes 35 to 50.

Key matchups

• Aaron Dunne and Stefan Tobin against Keith Ryan, Dean Carew, and the Church back line.
• Calum Lanigan and the Swan forward unit drawing contact against Shanahan and Gavin Ryan at the other end who will punish even soft fouls.
• Midfield contests around Gavin O’Halloran and Ben Mulcaire for Swan, and Diarmuid Grant and Aaron Ryan for Upperchurch, the winners here will write the pace.

Most likely game shape
Tight first quarter, trading frees and controlled points from range. A slightly faster second quarter where Swan try to force a turnover goal, or a diagonal that puts Dunne in a one v one. Upperchurch will try to stretch it wide to Phelan, pick up small scores, and rely on their structure to defuse the big threat. The last fifteen will belong to the free takers, and to the calmest men on the ball.

Projected score and winner
Carrick Swan should have the edge because they carry a sharper goal threat and a more balanced scoring spread. With 64% of their scores coming from play, they can hurt teams in open passages rather than relying on frees. Their seven goals across the campaign show a cutting edge that Upperchurch haven’t quite matched, and that kind of firepower often decides tight county finals. Defensively, they’ve been consistent without being leaky, and if they keep their discipline to limit Upperchurch’s frees, their superior attacking variety should see them home

Prediction, Carrick Swan to win by four points.

Projected Score, Upperchurch Drombane 0-20, Carrick Swan 1-21.

Senior Hurling Final In-depth analysis and Predictions, Click HERE

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2025 Tipperary Premier Intermediate, Top Scorers

2025 Tipperary Premier Intermediate, Top Scorers From Play

Upperchurch-Drombane – Total Scorers (2025 Premier Intermediate Championship)

Carrick Swan – Total Scorers (2025 Premier Intermediate Championship)